***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-16.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 9999.0 0.0 2.8 2.7 92.3 87.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 9 91 100 1.0 2.5 2.5 2.6 91.8 86.5 -1.3 -0.4 0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 3.7 4.9 2.5 2.6 92.4 88.2 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 -1.8 -0.7 0.0 2.7 91.0 88.8 -6.2 -4.6 -2.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 0.2 1.9 0.5 2.8 93.0 89.6 -1.7 -1.1 -0.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 -0.6 0.5 -1.2 2.8 89.2 87.6 -2.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 1.4 2.8 2.5 2.6 92.3 86.2 -1.0 -0.3 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 -4.6 -4.2 -0.7 2.9 87.7 87.4 -8.7 -6.8 -5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 1.5 2.7 1.0 2.8 92.3 87.8 -1.1 0.3 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 10 90 100 1.1 2.8 -0.1 3.0 89.7 87.8 -1.3 0.0 0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 0.7 2.3 0.1 2.7 91.7 88.8 -0.9 -0.3 0.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 -0.3 0.5 -0.2 2.6 87.5 86.8 -2.2 -1.2 -0.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 11 89 100 0.6 1.4 -0.5 2.6 86.9 86.2 -1.3 -0.5 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 9 91 100 1.7 2.8 1.1 2.7 90.8 87.6 -1.0 0.5 1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 1.5 2.4 0.4 2.4 89.3 85.9 -1.1 -0.1 0.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 1.6 2.7 -0.3 2.6 89.9 87.6 -0.5 0.2 0.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 1.3 2.7 2.4 2.5 91.2 85.3 -1.1 -0.3 1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 -1.3 0.0 -0.7 3.1 89.2 86.6 -2.8 -1.9 -1.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.5 91.9 86.7 -1.3 -0.4 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 -3.3 -1.7 -2.0 3.3 90.2 87.2 -6.4 -4.5 -3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 0.9 2.8 2.0 2.7 92.6 88.2 -1.2 -0.4 0.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 0.8 2.0 2.3 2.4 91.0 85.6 -1.4 -0.8 0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 0.5 2.0 2.0 2.4 91.4 86.7 -1.3 -0.7 0.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 11 89 100 0.4 1.9 0.8 2.8 89.9 87.1 -1.6 -0.2 0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 7 93 100 0.8 2.3 1.2 2.8 92.5 89.2 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 11 89 100 0.6 2.0 -0.3 2.6 91.0 88.0 -1.4 -0.4 0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 1.5 2.6 2.0 2.7 92.4 88.1 -1.2 -0.2 1.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 7 93 100 -0.3 0.8 0.3 2.6 90.3 87.6 -2.7 -1.2 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 -1.1 -0.1 -1.2 3.1 88.9 86.7 -4.5 -3.7 -1.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 1.6 3.1 2.6 2.6 91.9 87.2 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------