***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.03.2014.-09.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 9999.0 0.0 2.9 1.9 77.9 72.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 1.9 2.7 2.7 1.9 76.2 72.1 -1.1 0.4 1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 4.1 4.8 2.6 1.9 77.0 73.2 1.1 2.8 4.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 -1.6 -0.6 0.2 2.2 80.4 76.4 -5.5 -4.1 -1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 26 74 100 1.8 2.5 0.5 2.1 78.3 75.5 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 28 72 100 0.6 1.2 -1.1 2.4 79.0 75.6 -2.9 -0.9 0.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 33 67 100 2.3 3.1 2.7 1.9 76.0 71.7 -0.8 0.7 1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -4.1 -3.2 -0.6 2.2 75.2 73.6 -7.8 -6.1 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 2.9 3.5 1.3 2.1 76.8 74.2 -0.5 1.1 2.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 2.3 2.8 0.0 2.2 75.1 73.9 -0.5 0.5 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 2.3 2.7 0.2 2.1 76.3 74.9 -1.1 0.4 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 0.3 0.8 0.0 2.0 76.6 73.4 -2.4 -0.8 0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 1.4 2.3 -0.4 2.1 77.3 73.1 -1.1 -0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 2.7 3.4 1.1 1.9 75.8 72.3 0.1 1.1 3.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 2.5 3.3 0.7 2.2 77.7 75.9 -0.7 0.4 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 2.9 3.7 -0.1 2.1 77.1 74.5 -0.5 0.8 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 2.4 3.1 2.6 1.8 76.8 70.8 -0.4 1.1 2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 0.0 0.7 -0.5 2.3 75.1 73.0 -2.9 -1.5 -0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 2.3 2.9 2.6 1.8 75.4 72.3 -0.8 0.8 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 -2.2 -1.6 -2.0 2.4 73.2 71.5 -7.2 -3.8 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 2.3 2.7 2.1 2.0 76.8 73.4 -0.9 0.3 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 2.0 2.4 2.5 1.7 74.1 70.5 -1.0 1.0 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 1.8 2.6 2.2 1.8 76.9 72.5 -1.0 0.2 1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 2.0 2.8 1.0 2.0 76.8 73.4 -0.9 0.0 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 1.6 2.3 1.2 2.1 79.0 75.5 -0.4 0.4 1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 1.5 2.1 -0.2 2.1 77.9 74.1 -1.6 0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 2.6 3.5 2.1 2.0 77.9 73.1 -0.5 0.6 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 1.1 2.0 0.5 2.2 78.4 75.6 -2.2 -1.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 -0.4 0.1 -1.1 2.4 75.5 73.0 -3.4 -1.8 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 2.6 3.4 2.8 1.9 76.2 72.3 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------