***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.02.2014.-02.03.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 9999.0 0.0 1.7 2.2 72.0 69.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.5 74.6 72.6 -2.5 -0.7 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 3.7 3.7 1.4 2.2 72.8 70.9 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 2.1 68.9 70.0 -5.7 -5.1 -2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 0.3 0.7 -0.8 2.2 73.0 70.8 -3.5 -1.0 0.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 0.0 -0.3 -2.1 2.5 71.9 72.7 -4.1 -1.2 -0.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 1.7 2.0 1.9 2.4 74.9 72.1 -2.1 -0.4 0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 20 80 100 -4.4 -3.8 -1.7 2.5 72.4 72.4 -9.3 -7.2 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 1.6 2.0 0.0 2.4 74.5 71.0 -2.8 -0.3 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 23 77 100 1.3 1.7 -1.2 2.5 72.6 71.7 -2.3 -1.3 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 29 71 100 1.0 1.2 -1.1 2.1 70.0 69.9 -2.7 -1.0 1.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 23 77 100 0.5 0.4 -1.3 2.1 71.9 70.3 -3.8 -1.8 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 1.1 0.8 -1.5 2.2 72.0 70.7 -3.0 -0.6 0.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 2.0 2.7 0.2 2.5 75.3 72.7 -1.7 -0.2 1.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 0.7 0.5 -1.0 1.9 63.7 66.5 -2.4 -0.5 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 1.9 2.4 -1.4 2.1 70.7 70.4 -2.2 -0.3 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.6 77.0 72.8 -2.1 -0.7 1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 20 80 100 -1.0 -0.7 -1.5 2.9 76.4 73.7 -4.0 -2.4 -1.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 25 75 100 1.5 1.7 1.7 2.3 73.8 72.3 -2.4 -0.6 1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 -1.9 -1.5 -2.4 3.3 75.4 76.1 -8.9 -6.2 -2.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 1.0 1.4 0.8 2.2 73.2 69.9 -2.4 -0.5 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.5 77.2 73.1 -2.6 -0.8 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 0.8 0.8 1.2 2.2 72.3 71.6 -2.4 -0.6 0.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 1.2 1.8 -0.1 2.5 75.1 72.5 -2.3 -1.3 0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 0.5 1.1 -0.1 2.3 74.2 72.0 -2.4 -1.4 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 26 74 100 0.8 1.2 -1.1 2.3 73.6 71.7 -2.5 -0.5 0.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 1.8 2.1 1.0 2.3 73.2 70.9 -2.4 -0.8 1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 -0.8 0.0 -1.0 2.1 67.0 68.6 -4.5 -2.7 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 -0.5 0.0 -1.8 3.1 76.0 76.0 -5.8 -3.6 -1.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.3 73.5 71.9 -1.9 -0.3 0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------