***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.02.2014.-23.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 3.6 5.5 98.9 96.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 1.3 3.4 2.7 4.6 96.3 94.0 -3.7 -2.1 -1.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 3.7 5.8 3.2 5.2 98.2 96.7 -1.1 -0.2 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.8 0.9 0.8 4.8 99.2 97.0 -7.3 -6.3 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 0.8 3.2 1.8 5.5 99.8 98.4 -3.7 -2.8 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -0.8 2.0 -0.4 4.8 98.8 96.2 -4.5 -3.0 -1.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 1.6 3.1 2.7 4.7 96.3 94.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -3.9 -3.1 0.5 5.6 99.4 97.2 -10.1 -8.5 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 1.8 3.1 1.9 5.2 99.0 97.1 -2.6 -1.6 0.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.0 1.1 5.8 99.5 97.7 -3.0 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.8 3.8 1.2 5.2 99.8 98.0 -3.2 -1.9 -0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 0.2 2.2 0.8 5.1 99.4 96.9 -4.3 -2.8 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.9 0.6 4.8 98.7 96.4 -3.3 -1.7 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.0 1.9 5.2 98.8 96.6 -2.8 -1.4 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 0.5 2.7 1.1 3.9 96.2 93.8 -2.3 -1.1 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 1.9 3.1 0.6 4.6 99.5 97.0 -2.7 -1.1 -0.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 2 98 100 0.9 2.5 2.2 4.3 94.6 92.0 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.2 1.2 0.5 5.8 99.6 97.4 -4.9 -3.7 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 0.9 3.5 2.6 4.5 96.7 94.4 -3.3 -2.2 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -3.9 0.4 -0.6 6.3 99.1 97.9 -8.6 -7.2 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 1.5 4.9 3.1 5.5 99.4 97.6 -3.2 -1.9 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 0.4 2.5 2.2 4.2 95.1 92.7 -3.7 -2.2 -0.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 0.4 2.5 2.3 4.4 97.3 94.9 -3.9 -2.3 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 0.3 3.0 1.7 5.2 98.6 96.5 -3.5 -1.8 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.6 3.2 2.5 5.5 99.1 97.3 -3.3 -1.6 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.4 3.2 0.6 4.9 99.0 96.6 -3.1 -1.6 -1.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.4 4.6 3.0 5.5 98.4 96.8 -3.7 -1.7 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 -0.8 1.6 1.0 4.5 98.8 96.2 -4.1 -2.2 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 -0.4 1.3 -0.2 5.8 98.5 96.9 -6.9 -4.5 -2.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 1 99 100 1.7 4.0 3.0 4.8 97.7 95.4 -3.2 -1.8 -0.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------