***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 17.9 22.8 35.2 84.5 39.1 36.9 20.2 26.2 41.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 17.4 17.1 34.7 84.8 38.1 39.9 16.5 31.5 38.3 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 21.4 26.6 36.9 85.3 33.7 36.9 26.3 31.5 43.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 22.9 29.6 43.9 89.9 44.0 42.3 22.3 29.8 54.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 21.3 31.1 42.7 87.2 40.1 39.0 26.9 33.5 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 21.0 29.1 48.4 91.2 45.7 45.5 20.6 31.7 40.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 13.7 20.6 33.5 83.6 34.9 38.9 19.6 25.2 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 45.2 57.1 49.9 93.4 43.5 43.4 50.3 58.2 75.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 18.9 23.6 42.0 85.5 35.4 36.5 22.5 32.0 42.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 27.3 30.2 47.6 89.2 37.7 38.9 29.4 38.9 46.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 18.0 24.2 41.6 88.1 39.0 40.4 23.0 35.3 43.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.0 27.2 43.3 91.7 44.1 43.8 22.9 30.3 42.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 40.5 31.4 45.3 89.6 43.8 43.6 23.7 36.5 46.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 34.2 36.7 47.9 88.4 37.6 39.6 33.6 46.8 66.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 39.5 32.3 43.7 97.3 51.3 48.6 13.4 30.4 45.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 21.7 24.7 42.4 88.8 43.1 42.6 22.4 30.4 41.6 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 15.1 21.1 33.4 84.1 37.7 39.5 17.7 27.5 34.8 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 24.8 31.0 53.3 90.8 39.0 39.8 26.5 36.3 42.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 19.7 23.2 35.9 85.5 38.0 40.0 22.7 33.0 41.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 25.8 33.1 66.2 97.1 45.8 46.7 22.6 33.9 43.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 18.0 22.5 38.2 84.8 35.9 35.8 21.3 35.1 46.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 18.6 26.4 35.8 86.3 38.8 41.0 22.7 29.5 32.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 19.4 23.4 38.4 86.3 38.0 39.9 21.1 29.1 40.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 28.2 32.2 46.0 87.2 35.0 37.2 32.1 39.8 57.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 17.5 24.2 42.5 86.2 38.0 38.3 22.3 26.0 52.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 24.3 31.1 47.2 94.6 48.8 46.9 22.7 31.4 36.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 17.1 19.1 39.1 84.3 37.5 37.3 17.7 26.8 46.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 17.3 20.9 43.4 93.5 46.5 45.4 13.0 26.5 41.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 41.3 45.1 58.0 92.6 41.3 42.0 39.4 52.6 80.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 19.4 18.8 34.9 84.9 37.1 39.0 15.6 33.8 40.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------