***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 0.7 4.2 10.9 104.5 61.1 48.8 1.1 1.9 4.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 0.5 3.9 10.7 100.1 58.6 48.2 0.5 1.2 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 1.3 4.8 10.7 96.4 57.3 45.1 1.9 3.4 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.2 7.4 11.0 87.1 51.4 44.2 4.0 7.4 10.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.3 10.4 81.9 46.6 42.2 1.1 3.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 5.3 2.8 11.1 76.3 44.9 42.8 1.7 3.5 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.9 2.9 10.6 101.1 57.1 48.3 0.9 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.5 11.3 11.6 81.9 48.1 43.4 4.3 11.9 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 1.2 2.8 10.5 81.9 45.7 41.9 1.5 3.0 5.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 2.0 4.6 11.2 79.1 43.3 41.1 2.6 5.0 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.4 9.7 78.5 45.2 41.4 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.0 9.9 80.6 51.2 44.2 1.7 3.7 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.8 3.8 10.5 78.6 48.1 44.4 1.5 4.1 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.9 12.6 87.6 48.7 42.6 2.9 6.9 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 1.5 4.5 10.9 91.6 58.1 47.1 0.8 3.2 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.9 3.9 9.8 78.1 49.6 43.0 1.3 4.0 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 0.9 2.9 10.3 99.2 56.5 49.2 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.9 3.7 12.5 78.8 41.3 40.8 2.2 4.1 6.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.2 5.0 10.8 98.7 58.8 46.7 0.9 3.2 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.2 4.7 16.1 88.2 51.6 45.9 3.1 4.7 6.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.2 2.3 10.2 88.4 51.2 43.2 1.4 2.3 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 0.5 2.0 10.6 97.6 56.0 47.9 0.5 1.3 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 1.0 4.2 11.0 95.0 57.4 44.4 0.9 2.8 5.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 2.8 5.2 11.7 82.9 45.2 40.9 1.8 6.4 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 1.5 5.9 12.7 102.3 58.5 47.8 0.8 3.5 6.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.0 1.8 10.9 79.4 47.7 45.6 0.8 1.9 7.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.8 6.0 12.3 106.5 61.2 49.3 0.6 4.5 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.0 4.0 10.3 83.9 52.9 44.5 1.7 3.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.8 6.8 13.6 80.5 44.8 41.7 3.2 7.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 0.4 4.5 10.8 101.6 59.8 47.8 0.4 1.3 5.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------