***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.1 7.5 9.5 90.4 52.0 47.8 5.3 7.4 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.9 7.4 9.0 80.5 51.9 46.2 3.9 7.3 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.9 10.1 91.5 53.6 47.6 1.7 10.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 13.8 13.0 107.2 59.0 51.5 5.0 7.4 15.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.8 12.5 104.7 58.7 50.8 6.2 9.9 16.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.1 11.2 15.4 115.3 67.3 55.7 3.3 6.0 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 7.8 6.6 8.8 79.9 49.8 46.2 2.0 6.7 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 21.6 25.4 14.0 105.7 58.9 50.9 11.4 18.4 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.0 11.7 12.1 102.8 59.6 49.7 2.8 6.8 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.9 13.1 13.6 105.1 57.9 50.3 7.9 12.5 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.1 12.2 107.0 58.4 51.4 1.9 6.4 9.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.0 12.6 107.0 62.0 52.3 2.8 6.7 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.7 13.9 109.4 62.2 53.4 4.7 8.5 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.8 19.3 12.8 96.3 55.8 47.7 5.4 15.2 24.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.9 13.8 13.3 113.0 63.7 53.4 1.0 5.6 15.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.0 13.1 113.1 62.2 53.9 5.4 6.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 7.0 5.6 8.6 77.2 47.7 44.0 2.1 6.1 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.1 15.0 106.6 59.3 50.7 6.6 9.9 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 9.0 7.9 9.4 84.1 52.8 46.5 3.0 6.7 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.4 10.0 18.1 106.1 57.2 51.2 4.3 8.9 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.8 9.3 10.9 99.7 57.7 49.2 2.4 4.8 14.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 8.3 7.7 9.4 82.6 50.0 45.3 4.9 7.7 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.9 10.2 90.6 54.0 47.2 3.0 6.9 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.0 12.8 100.1 58.3 48.8 6.9 11.4 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.1 5.2 11.7 94.9 53.2 48.9 1.5 4.4 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.5 11.3 14.1 110.6 65.1 53.0 3.2 5.1 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.3 10.5 89.6 51.9 48.0 1.9 5.4 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 6.9 8.4 13.5 115.6 63.0 53.8 1.8 4.1 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.4 16.2 106.5 58.4 50.7 9.0 14.9 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.6 6.5 9.1 82.9 51.2 46.8 2.4 6.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------