***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.3 9.4 11.7 109.0 63.6 49.1 1.0 3.1 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.7 11.7 113.7 63.3 51.7 1.6 4.1 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.7 10.0 12.6 116.4 65.8 50.6 2.3 5.3 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.6 13.7 107.8 60.8 49.7 2.4 4.8 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.6 15.3 123.5 66.9 54.7 2.6 4.3 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.2 17.7 128.5 67.8 60.2 3.4 6.2 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.7 11.0 109.6 63.8 51.0 1.2 3.9 6.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 12.0 20.1 18.8 142.1 75.5 61.4 6.9 9.1 14.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.1 15.6 126.6 66.8 54.6 2.6 3.7 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 14.5 17.9 135.8 72.0 59.1 3.4 5.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 7.0 10.4 15.7 131.5 70.2 57.6 2.5 5.1 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.0 17.4 16.4 136.6 74.6 59.6 3.2 5.9 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.1 12.8 17.0 132.2 70.1 60.4 3.2 5.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.4 11.7 17.2 126.0 66.0 55.4 2.8 6.1 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 6.9 5.3 13.6 112.1 59.2 52.7 0.1 2.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 6.8 8.5 15.7 126.3 68.1 57.8 3.1 5.4 8.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 6.2 7.1 11.4 114.3 66.0 52.0 2.6 4.5 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.5 14.0 19.9 136.0 73.4 60.2 1.4 4.9 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 6.2 9.0 12.2 115.5 63.0 51.6 2.3 4.2 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.3 12.0 24.2 140.0 71.9 62.5 1.9 7.4 11.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.3 8.7 13.7 122.0 66.5 52.6 3.0 4.7 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 2.2 6.6 12.4 117.6 63.4 52.6 2.7 4.4 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.3 6.3 13.2 117.9 63.5 52.1 2.2 4.0 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 7.6 6.7 16.6 126.7 69.5 55.3 2.7 4.6 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.7 8.7 14.1 110.0 63.9 50.0 2.3 3.7 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.6 18.7 17.6 143.7 75.3 61.9 2.9 6.8 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 1.5 6.7 12.8 106.6 62.4 48.8 1.3 3.0 8.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.5 8.4 13.9 112.2 60.4 52.4 0.8 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.7 24.7 21.8 137.6 73.2 61.6 4.6 7.2 17.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 2.2 8.7 11.6 112.6 64.2 50.8 1.1 4.4 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------