***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 2.6 1.3 3.2 31.6 17.3 17.4 3.5 8.9 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 0.8 0.4 3.2 37.4 29.5 23.7 0.5 3.3 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 1.2 1.0 3.6 34.5 21.0 17.7 1.7 4.5 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 3.8 3.7 6.2 54.7 31.7 28.8 3.9 6.6 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 2.9 2.2 4.5 37.5 20.6 18.5 5.0 7.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 2.3 2.5 4.2 37.0 23.6 20.6 4.1 7.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 74 26 0 100 0.9 0.8 3.1 36.6 30.9 22.8 0.9 3.3 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 75 25 0 100 6.9 6.3 5.4 42.6 23.2 21.7 9.8 14.2 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 1.1 0.4 3.8 31.2 13.4 14.8 2.7 4.8 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 2.3 1.7 4.9 37.3 16.8 18.2 4.1 5.7 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 2.1 0.9 4.0 34.8 18.4 17.9 2.9 8.1 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 3.2 3.1 4.5 39.8 22.1 20.7 4.4 8.2 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 2.5 1.6 4.0 33.9 16.5 17.1 7.9 9.3 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 78 22 0 100 3.1 2.5 5.2 40.9 22.1 21.7 4.3 7.2 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.4 2.8 5.9 64.6 49.2 38.2 0.8 3.2 8.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 3.0 2.8 3.9 34.5 18.7 17.4 3.8 6.3 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 72 28 0 100 1.3 1.4 3.1 37.6 34.4 25.1 1.3 3.6 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 82 18 0 100 2.0 1.4 5.8 41.4 18.9 20.0 3.8 6.4 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 81 19 0 100 0.9 1.0 3.5 37.3 26.9 23.0 1.5 3.4 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 74 26 0 100 4.7 5.0 7.8 49.9 29.2 25.4 5.5 9.6 14.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 90 10 0 100 1.2 0.8 3.4 30.0 14.3 15.0 1.9 3.3 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 1.2 1.7 3.5 39.7 36.6 26.3 1.5 4.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 1.4 1.1 4.0 38.0 23.4 21.8 2.0 4.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 84 16 0 100 2.9 3.7 4.8 38.2 19.8 18.9 5.0 6.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 1.4 0.9 4.1 34.3 17.0 17.4 2.8 5.0 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 3.2 5.0 4.8 41.9 26.5 23.1 6.2 9.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 1.8 0.7 3.4 31.2 14.3 16.2 3.6 6.8 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 1.2 1.7 5.8 57.2 37.1 31.0 1.4 3.1 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 82 18 0 100 6.2 5.0 6.5 44.1 22.1 21.2 8.4 16.1 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 1.2 0.7 3.3 36.4 25.9 21.6 1.5 5.5 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------