***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 10.1 8.4 7.8 -0.3 46.5 48.4 6.7 9.6 11.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.8 8.2 7.9 -0.2 51.2 50.7 6.2 8.1 10.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.7 8.5 8.0 -0.4 46.0 46.6 6.8 9.1 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.1 0.4 5.2 -1.0 39.1 39.8 0.1 1.1 4.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 9.6 7.9 5.9 -0.9 41.1 41.5 7.4 8.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 8.5 7.2 4.5 -0.8 41.7 41.9 6.6 7.8 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 8.5 8.1 7.9 -0.1 53.8 52.4 5.7 7.8 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.0 -0.8 4.8 -0.8 42.7 42.0 -1.8 -0.6 1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.0 6.7 -0.7 42.3 43.3 7.5 9.3 12.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.1 5.6 -0.8 42.5 42.2 7.5 9.1 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.7 8.4 5.8 -0.8 43.4 42.6 7.6 9.0 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.5 7.4 5.6 -0.8 44.3 43.1 7.0 8.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 10.0 8.8 5.4 -0.6 46.6 44.6 7.7 9.4 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.3 7.0 -0.7 44.9 43.5 7.1 9.4 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.6 6.9 5.9 -0.7 43.1 43.2 6.0 7.6 10.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 10.2 8.8 5.5 -0.8 43.5 42.6 8.1 9.5 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 8.4 8.0 7.7 -0.1 53.0 51.9 5.9 7.7 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.2 7.5 5.1 -1.0 39.7 40.6 6.8 8.2 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 8.6 7.9 8.0 -0.3 49.8 49.1 6.1 7.9 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.0 3.8 2.8 -1.0 38.6 38.6 2.8 4.2 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.9 8.0 7.4 -0.6 42.5 44.8 7.4 9.3 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 8.8 8.1 7.8 -0.2 51.2 49.8 6.3 8.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.5 8.5 8.0 -0.4 48.6 47.0 6.6 8.8 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 9.8 8.2 6.7 -0.8 42.0 43.1 7.4 9.0 11.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 8.7 7.7 6.2 -0.5 46.0 46.6 6.5 7.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.4 8.6 5.0 -0.6 48.5 44.5 7.4 8.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.3 8.4 7.1 -0.3 48.2 49.3 6.6 8.7 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.9 7.2 5.5 -1.0 39.4 39.8 6.6 7.8 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 4.9 3.3 4.2 -1.0 39.7 40.2 3.1 4.1 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 8.5 7.9 8.0 -0.2 50.5 50.0 6.1 7.9 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------