***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.5 9.7 10.1 -0.3 44.7 47.7 7.9 10.6 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 7.9 10.0 9.9 -0.3 45.8 47.2 8.9 10.3 13.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 11.8 10.5 10.2 -0.3 45.3 47.4 9.1 11.0 13.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 0.0 2.5 8.2 -0.4 45.5 46.6 1.0 2.5 4.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.5 8.5 -0.4 44.1 47.0 8.1 11.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.3 9.0 6.9 -0.2 47.6 48.9 7.4 9.3 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 7.7 9.7 9.9 -0.3 48.3 47.9 8.6 9.9 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -1.4 -0.1 7.1 -0.5 43.8 46.8 -1.3 0.8 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.8 9.9 9.1 -0.4 44.6 47.2 8.8 10.7 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 8.5 10.2 7.9 -0.4 44.2 47.0 8.4 11.0 13.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.8 10.4 8.3 -0.4 45.3 47.6 8.2 10.7 13.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.0 9.2 7.9 -0.4 44.6 47.5 8.3 10.1 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 8.9 10.3 7.5 -0.3 45.6 48.1 9.6 10.7 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.7 11.2 9.0 -0.4 44.0 47.0 9.2 11.8 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 9.5 8.5 -0.4 45.1 47.0 8.2 10.2 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.8 8.0 -0.3 45.7 47.9 9.2 11.2 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 7.6 9.5 9.6 -0.4 47.6 46.8 7.6 9.8 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 8.0 9.7 7.2 -0.5 43.8 46.8 8.7 10.6 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 8.1 10.0 10.1 -0.4 45.8 46.9 8.5 10.6 13.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.5 5.6 4.6 -0.7 44.0 45.0 4.2 6.0 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 12.0 10.4 9.7 -0.4 44.4 47.1 9.1 11.0 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 8.3 10.8 9.7 -0.5 46.6 45.9 8.1 11.1 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.1 10.7 10.1 -0.4 45.7 47.1 9.1 11.0 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.8 8.9 -0.4 43.8 47.3 9.6 11.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.4 9.9 8.5 -0.3 44.7 47.4 7.8 10.4 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 8.5 10.1 7.2 -0.3 45.8 48.4 9.3 10.6 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.2 9.9 9.3 -0.3 44.3 47.8 8.8 10.2 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.0 8.4 -0.4 45.1 47.0 8.5 10.7 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.3 5.4 6.1 -0.5 44.4 46.6 3.3 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 8.0 10.0 10.1 -0.3 45.6 47.5 8.2 10.4 13.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------