***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.2 8.4 7.9 -1.4 36.7 39.0 7.4 11.4 12.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 6.4 8.6 8.0 -1.2 40.9 40.4 7.7 9.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.3 8.9 8.0 -1.6 37.7 38.5 8.6 11.1 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 -0.3 0.2 5.7 -1.7 36.6 37.1 -0.1 3.3 5.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 7.5 9.1 6.0 -1.9 34.9 36.5 8.8 11.2 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 6.8 7.1 4.4 -1.9 32.3 36.3 7.1 10.0 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.2 8.2 7.9 -1.1 40.5 41.0 7.3 9.2 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 -2.5 -1.5 4.7 -2.0 31.8 35.5 -1.4 0.5 2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.8 9.4 6.6 -1.9 33.2 36.8 9.4 11.8 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 7.2 8.5 5.5 -2.0 31.3 35.7 9.1 11.2 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 7.7 9.0 5.8 -1.8 33.7 36.8 8.9 11.6 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 7.4 8.6 5.5 -1.9 34.0 36.2 8.5 10.7 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 8.0 9.0 5.0 -1.9 33.9 36.1 8.9 11.2 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 7.1 10.3 6.7 -1.9 35.3 36.8 9.7 11.8 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.8 6.2 -1.4 38.3 38.9 6.1 8.4 12.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 7.8 9.5 5.4 -1.8 33.9 36.5 9.4 11.5 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 5.8 7.7 7.8 -1.1 40.6 41.2 6.7 8.9 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 5.7 9.3 4.9 -2.1 31.1 35.2 9.5 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.1 8.2 8.1 -1.4 39.5 39.7 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 2.7 3.9 2.7 -2.0 30.9 34.0 4.2 5.7 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 8.0 9.2 7.3 -1.7 35.8 37.2 8.9 11.5 12.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.6 7.8 -1.3 38.9 39.9 6.9 9.9 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 6.6 9.8 7.9 -1.6 37.3 38.4 9.2 10.7 12.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 7.4 9.8 6.6 -1.9 33.7 36.6 9.6 12.1 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 6.7 7.8 6.2 -1.5 35.5 38.1 7.5 9.5 12.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 7.8 8.7 4.7 -1.8 33.9 36.3 8.6 10.8 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.7 7.1 -1.4 36.5 39.0 8.1 10.4 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 5.7 7.6 5.9 -1.7 36.7 37.5 6.5 9.4 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 71 29 0 100 1.8 4.4 4.0 -2.0 31.9 34.9 4.5 5.8 8.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 6.4 8.5 8.1 -1.3 39.2 40.0 7.7 9.5 12.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------