***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.9 7.4 0.0 53.2 50.2 5.9 8.0 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.7 6.5 7.5 0.0 50.6 50.1 4.5 6.5 11.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.2 7.4 7.6 -0.2 48.8 48.6 6.0 7.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 2.2 0.5 5.0 -0.5 48.1 46.8 -1.3 0.5 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 10.0 7.8 5.3 -0.7 45.4 44.9 5.6 8.6 10.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.7 5.7 4.0 -0.7 42.1 44.7 5.4 7.1 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.3 7.4 0.1 53.6 51.0 4.6 6.3 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.5 -1.5 4.0 -1.2 41.4 41.2 -2.8 0.1 1.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.4 6.1 -0.6 47.1 46.3 6.1 8.5 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.1 7.4 4.9 -1.0 43.5 43.0 5.9 8.8 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.1 8.1 5.2 -0.7 45.9 45.0 6.0 8.7 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.5 6.6 4.8 -1.0 41.6 42.4 5.5 8.2 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.3 6.5 4.4 -0.9 40.4 42.8 6.4 8.1 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 10.4 6.8 6.2 -1.0 43.3 42.8 6.2 8.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.8 5.8 0.2 53.4 52.2 4.6 7.2 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.7 8.2 4.9 -0.7 43.2 44.7 6.5 9.1 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.1 5.9 7.2 0.0 48.6 49.7 4.5 6.0 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 7.6 4.2 -1.3 40.7 40.4 6.2 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.8 6.1 7.6 -0.1 47.3 48.9 4.7 6.3 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 1.5 2.0 1.7 -1.8 33.3 36.5 2.0 3.5 7.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 10.0 8.3 6.9 -0.3 48.3 47.8 6.0 8.5 11.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.7 5.9 7.3 -0.2 45.2 47.4 4.8 6.5 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.4 7.5 -0.3 43.3 46.7 6.0 6.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.0 6.1 -0.9 44.3 43.4 6.4 8.6 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.8 7.6 5.7 -0.1 51.2 49.6 4.8 7.5 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.6 6.3 4.0 -1.0 36.8 41.2 6.1 8.7 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.2 6.6 0.0 52.2 50.2 5.3 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.5 5.4 -0.3 49.0 48.5 5.2 7.7 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.4 3.3 3.2 -1.5 38.0 39.2 1.9 5.2 7.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 7.8 6.9 7.6 0.0 52.6 50.3 4.7 6.4 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------