***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 6.0 7.5 5.9 0.5 57.8 57.9 4.9 5.4 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 5.3 6.0 6.3 0.9 58.8 60.3 3.1 4.7 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 90 10 100 6.3 7.1 6.1 0.3 57.6 55.7 3.5 5.8 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 0.6 -1.6 1.9 -1.4 37.1 38.4 -2.7 -0.2 0.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 6.6 6.0 3.6 -0.6 47.7 47.6 3.7 6.1 9.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 5.7 5.6 2.5 -0.4 52.1 49.9 2.9 5.0 7.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 4.9 7.3 6.4 1.2 63.8 62.8 2.8 4.2 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 -1.6 -1.1 3.7 0.2 57.6 54.7 -3.5 -1.9 -0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 91 9 100 7.0 6.6 5.0 -0.2 52.2 51.4 4.4 6.5 9.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 90 10 100 6.8 6.9 4.3 0.0 56.2 53.2 4.2 6.2 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 7.2 7.1 4.0 -0.3 51.9 49.9 4.5 6.7 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 6.3 7.1 4.2 0.2 58.1 55.0 4.1 5.6 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 6.7 8.4 4.7 0.7 63.1 59.4 4.5 5.7 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 91 9 100 7.0 9.0 6.0 0.4 60.8 56.5 3.6 6.6 9.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 6.5 4.2 3.3 -1.2 39.1 40.3 3.4 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 7.2 6.9 3.8 -0.2 53.7 51.2 4.7 6.4 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 4.8 6.5 6.3 1.2 61.9 63.4 2.6 4.0 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 6.0 6.9 3.8 0.0 58.0 53.0 3.3 5.6 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 90 10 100 5.8 7.0 6.4 0.7 57.8 58.8 2.9 5.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 3.3 3.8 2.4 0.4 59.9 56.8 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 7.2 6.8 5.5 0.0 53.8 52.9 3.8 6.6 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 5.9 6.7 6.4 1.0 62.4 61.9 2.8 5.2 7.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 6.3 6.7 6.5 0.6 58.5 57.6 2.9 5.9 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 92 8 100 6.9 7.4 5.3 0.1 58.6 53.9 3.7 6.5 9.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 5.0 5.8 4.3 0.1 56.6 54.7 3.6 4.7 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 44 56 100 8.9 8.1 4.1 0.8 62.8 60.1 4.7 5.4 8.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 6.0 7.0 5.5 0.7 61.0 59.6 4.1 5.3 7.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.1 3.9 2.4 -1.6 33.7 36.1 3.8 6.3 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 90 10 100 3.1 4.1 3.3 0.2 59.1 54.7 0.1 2.6 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 5.4 5.8 6.3 0.8 59.6 59.7 3.0 4.8 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------