***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 0.6 0.4 -0.2 0.0 54.6 52.8 -1.2 0.3 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 55.7 53.5 -1.4 -0.4 0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 1.8 1.5 -0.4 0.0 54.0 52.7 0.1 1.4 2.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 -4.1 -5.7 -3.4 -0.7 36.8 42.5 -6.4 -4.8 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 -0.9 -1.3 -2.8 -0.4 43.0 46.2 -1.8 -1.2 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 -1.7 -1.8 -4.5 -0.3 52.2 50.0 -2.4 -1.9 -1.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.0 55.9 52.8 -1.1 -0.4 0.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -6.5 -7.1 -4.1 -0.3 48.3 48.1 -8.9 -6.9 -5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 0.3 0.0 -1.9 -0.1 50.0 50.2 -1.3 0.0 0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 -0.1 -0.3 -3.5 -0.2 50.5 49.1 -1.4 -0.3 0.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -0.3 -0.5 -2.7 -0.1 49.5 50.5 -1.2 -0.4 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -1.2 -1.5 -3.1 -0.2 48.7 49.4 -2.4 -1.4 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -0.4 -0.4 -3.4 -0.1 52.2 51.0 -1.4 -0.6 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 0.6 0.3 -2.0 -0.2 53.0 49.8 -1.1 0.3 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 0.1 -0.4 -2.3 -0.1 49.2 50.0 -1.2 -0.3 0.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 0.4 0.1 -3.2 -0.2 49.9 49.9 -0.7 0.1 0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 -0.2 0.4 -0.4 0.0 55.1 53.0 -1.3 -0.5 0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -2.0 -2.3 -4.6 -0.6 45.1 43.9 -2.7 -2.1 -1.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.0 55.5 53.5 -1.5 -0.6 0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -7.4 -6.6 -6.8 -1.2 33.3 36.8 -6.8 -4.8 -3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 -0.2 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 51.1 50.8 -1.5 -0.5 0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 56.5 52.0 -1.7 -0.8 0.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 55.5 53.4 -1.5 -0.8 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -0.2 -2.3 -0.2 53.0 49.5 -1.7 -0.6 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -0.4 -0.5 -1.8 0.0 54.8 54.1 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -0.4 -0.7 -3.5 -0.5 45.8 46.4 -1.7 -0.6 -0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 0.0 0.3 -0.9 0.1 54.6 53.7 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -1.2 -2.3 -3.0 -0.6 39.6 43.7 -2.9 -1.4 -1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -5.1 -4.4 -5.6 -1.0 38.7 39.4 -4.5 -3.8 -1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 0.2 0.3 -0.3 0.0 55.1 53.1 -1.2 -0.1 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------