***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.03.2015.-15.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 1.3 0.5 1.3 -0.4 48.2 47.1 -0.2 0.7 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -0.8 0.1 1.1 -0.3 47.4 48.1 -0.4 0.3 1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 3.1 2.0 0.9 -0.5 44.0 45.7 1.1 2.3 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 -3.2 -5.1 -1.5 -0.5 40.2 46.8 -5.2 -3.9 -1.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.5 -1.4 -0.6 41.5 46.2 -1.7 -0.9 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 -0.7 -2.0 -3.2 -0.5 36.0 46.0 -2.4 -1.2 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.3 1.2 -0.2 48.7 49.0 -0.2 0.4 1.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -5.9 -8.3 -3.0 -0.8 36.3 43.9 -8.5 -6.7 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 -1.0 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 40.2 45.7 -0.3 0.3 0.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 1.0 -0.1 -2.4 -0.8 39.0 44.2 -0.7 0.5 1.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 0.8 0.0 -1.6 -0.5 41.8 46.1 -0.7 0.4 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -1.7 -2.1 -0.7 37.0 45.1 -2.0 -1.3 0.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 0.4 -0.5 -2.5 -0.7 36.4 44.9 -0.7 -0.1 0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 -0.3 0.1 -1.0 -0.8 38.5 44.2 -0.3 1.4 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 -0.5 -0.1 -0.9 -0.4 39.6 47.7 -0.3 1.0 1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 0.9 0.1 -2.1 -0.6 38.2 45.5 -0.1 0.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 1.0 0.4 1.1 -0.3 48.7 48.8 0.0 0.5 1.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -2.8 -1.7 -3.3 -1.0 37.8 42.7 -2.1 -1.1 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 -0.8 0.2 1.0 -0.4 46.0 47.2 -0.4 0.6 1.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 -5.7 -4.9 -5.1 -1.0 34.1 41.7 -5.0 -3.4 -2.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.6 43.1 45.7 -0.9 -0.1 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 -1.3 0.1 0.9 -0.4 49.5 47.7 -0.4 0.1 1.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -1.1 -0.3 0.5 -0.5 44.6 46.2 -0.8 0.4 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -1.1 -0.2 -1.2 -0.8 38.5 44.0 -0.6 0.3 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 0.7 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 46.2 47.9 -0.6 0.2 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 0.4 -1.3 -2.2 -0.6 36.5 46.2 -1.4 -0.1 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 -0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.4 48.7 47.7 -0.4 0.5 0.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 -2.4 -1.6 -1.3 -0.5 39.0 46.5 -1.8 -1.3 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -4.3 -3.7 -4.0 -1.0 35.7 42.5 -4.0 -2.6 -0.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 -0.4 0.2 1.2 -0.3 47.6 47.5 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------