***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.03.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 -1.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.9 37.0 41.6 -1.1 0.5 3.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -1.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 41.3 42.3 -1.1 0.4 1.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 0.8 1.4 -0.5 -0.9 36.3 42.0 1.1 2.5 3.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -6.8 -5.3 -2.9 -0.6 37.0 43.5 -5.5 -4.6 -1.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 -2.1 -1.2 -2.7 -0.8 33.6 41.6 -1.3 -0.3 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 -2.8 -2.9 -4.6 -0.9 29.8 42.5 -2.8 -1.3 0.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 -1.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.9 41.5 42.3 -0.5 0.6 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 -8.4 -7.9 -4.2 -0.9 34.4 40.2 -8.1 -5.6 -3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 -0.8 -0.8 -2.0 -0.9 33.0 41.1 -0.8 0.9 2.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 -1.1 -0.5 -3.6 -1.0 33.1 39.8 -0.5 0.3 1.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 -1.1 -0.4 -2.7 -0.6 36.5 42.8 -0.9 0.1 1.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 -2.3 -2.2 -3.1 -0.7 34.0 41.9 -2.3 -0.6 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 -1.8 -1.1 -3.7 -0.9 31.7 40.6 -1.0 -0.2 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 -1.0 0.3 -2.1 -1.1 33.1 39.4 0.3 0.8 2.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 -1.1 -0.1 -2.1 -0.3 39.8 46.6 -0.9 0.6 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 -3.2 -0.6 34.6 43.1 -0.5 0.8 1.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 1.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.9 40.8 42.7 -0.6 0.9 1.9 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 -2.7 -2.9 -4.6 -1.4 31.9 38.1 -2.9 -1.2 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -1.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.9 39.4 42.1 -0.9 0.7 1.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 -7.4 -6.6 -6.5 -1.6 32.2 36.8 -6.4 -4.3 -1.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -1.2 -0.5 -1.0 -0.9 35.6 41.5 -0.6 0.5 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 1.3 -0.3 -0.5 -0.9 38.6 41.9 -1.1 0.8 2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -1.0 -1.1 -0.7 -0.9 37.1 41.7 -1.2 0.3 1.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 -1.4 -0.6 -2.4 -1.1 33.5 40.1 -0.7 0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 -0.9 -0.4 -1.9 -0.8 37.0 42.8 -0.7 0.2 1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 -1.7 -1.1 -3.6 -1.1 30.7 38.7 -1.0 0.1 1.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 -1.6 -0.4 -1.0 -0.9 36.6 41.7 -0.8 0.4 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -2.4 -2.1 -2.5 -0.4 37.9 44.9 -2.4 -1.0 0.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -4.8 -3.8 -5.2 -1.4 31.3 37.8 -3.5 -1.6 -0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 -0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 39.2 41.9 -0.7 1.0 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------