***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 0.7 1.0 -0.1 0.7 62.6 60.0 -3.1 0.3 1.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.6 62.1 59.0 -2.7 -1.1 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 1.0 1.3 -0.3 0.6 60.7 58.8 -0.7 0.4 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 -4.6 -5.1 -3.3 0.2 50.9 50.9 -6.8 -5.4 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 -0.9 -0.9 -3.0 0.2 51.1 51.3 -3.8 -1.2 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 -3.9 -1.8 -4.5 0.3 46.7 51.8 -3.7 -1.2 -1.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 -0.5 0.4 -0.2 0.7 63.0 59.8 -2.9 -0.9 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -6.5 -8.8 -4.6 -0.3 41.5 45.8 -10.3 -7.4 -4.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 0.1 0.8 -2.0 0.6 58.5 56.0 -3.2 -0.3 1.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 -0.5 -1.1 -3.8 0.0 48.8 49.4 -2.7 -1.0 0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 -0.4 0.0 -2.9 0.5 55.2 54.4 -2.6 -0.8 0.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 -1.3 -2.2 -3.3 0.2 48.6 51.9 -3.7 -1.7 -0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 -0.3 -0.4 -3.6 0.3 51.3 52.9 -2.3 -0.6 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 86 14 100 -0.1 -0.5 -2.2 0.2 50.4 51.7 -2.0 -0.5 1.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 0.0 -0.2 -2.1 0.9 61.0 59.4 -1.8 -0.4 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 0.4 0.4 -3.2 0.5 54.1 54.6 -1.7 -0.1 1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.6 62.3 58.9 -2.6 -0.8 0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -2.8 -3.7 -5.1 -0.5 43.6 44.6 -4.3 -3.3 -1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 0.6 60.9 58.7 -2.8 -1.1 0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 -10.6 -9.1 -7.7 -1.8 31.8 34.5 -8.5 -5.7 -2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 -0.2 0.3 -0.9 0.6 60.3 58.5 -3.2 -0.5 0.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.5 60.3 56.8 -2.9 -0.9 -0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 0.6 59.5 58.4 -3.1 -1.1 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 -0.9 -1.3 -2.5 0.3 52.5 52.3 -2.7 -1.3 0.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 86 14 100 -0.7 -0.1 -1.9 0.8 60.7 59.8 -3.0 -1.0 0.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 -0.2 -1.7 -3.6 -0.2 39.9 47.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 0.3 0.8 -0.9 0.8 62.7 60.6 -3.1 -0.1 0.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -2.2 -2.9 0.4 53.6 53.3 -4.3 -2.6 -0.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 -3.6 -5.7 -5.9 -0.8 39.4 42.2 -6.2 -4.6 -0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 -0.2 0.4 -0.2 0.6 61.2 59.0 -2.8 -0.7 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------