***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 18.4 20.6 26.9 61.6 25.2 27.1 22.5 26.8 46.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 76 24 0 100 16.0 15.8 23.1 60.3 24.1 26.1 16.8 31.5 38.3 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 22.5 24.0 27.8 63.1 25.0 27.6 27.5 33.0 43.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 23.4 23.4 35.7 71.1 29.3 33.4 26.9 34.6 54.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 23.4 23.8 36.8 73.1 30.9 33.3 26.6 34.2 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.7 22.0 38.8 78.1 36.9 36.3 20.9 33.5 41.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 76 24 0 100 12.3 14.8 22.5 59.9 22.6 26.1 19.8 25.4 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 46.1 53.2 43.2 79.5 32.5 35.3 53.9 58.3 75.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 23.6 21.3 37.5 72.9 29.8 32.6 21.8 32.4 42.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 28.7 29.6 42.6 77.3 30.9 34.1 29.8 39.7 46.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 20.7 23.6 37.8 76.6 33.1 34.8 23.6 35.2 43.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 22.1 26.1 37.6 77.6 33.2 34.9 26.0 30.9 43.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 27.1 30.7 39.6 76.9 35.4 34.7 29.6 35.8 47.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 35.2 32.0 38.1 66.7 24.9 27.9 37.9 50.2 66.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 15.7 16.6 31.3 68.6 35.0 34.2 16.0 31.0 51.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 21.6 22.6 37.3 76.4 34.6 35.1 22.3 30.5 41.5 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 12.7 13.9 21.1 56.3 22.4 24.8 19.1 27.5 34.9 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 25.2 27.7 43.4 75.0 28.0 32.3 29.8 35.3 43.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 73 27 0 100 20.0 16.9 24.6 61.7 23.3 26.5 22.7 33.8 41.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 24.1 26.4 54.0 78.4 31.5 34.6 27.0 34.1 43.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 69 31 0 100 22.2 20.8 32.6 67.3 27.3 29.9 23.0 34.9 46.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 72 28 0 100 17.7 16.6 22.8 57.1 21.7 24.8 21.8 29.5 33.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 19.0 17.5 27.8 64.1 22.0 27.4 22.8 32.0 39.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 30.4 31.2 36.6 68.7 25.7 29.3 32.4 40.0 58.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 19.1 17.3 32.1 63.3 25.4 27.8 23.4 32.6 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 22.6 28.0 37.4 75.4 32.8 34.3 28.1 31.9 41.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 16.7 16.3 28.7 62.0 24.9 27.1 20.6 26.8 46.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 18.5 15.6 34.4 72.7 34.0 34.7 15.3 33.9 49.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 43.3 41.5 46.1 75.2 27.9 32.4 45.5 54.8 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 17.1 15.6 24.4 61.7 24.3 27.0 18.4 33.8 40.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------