***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.8 9.3 77.9 51.5 42.5 1.0 4.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 0.7 1.4 8.2 78.2 48.8 42.3 0.7 1.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.0 4.9 9.3 78.3 52.6 43.1 1.3 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.3 10.9 80.9 52.1 42.7 4.6 8.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.2 5.3 11.4 85.0 52.8 44.2 0.7 4.9 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.8 4.7 11.8 87.4 52.4 44.0 1.6 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 0.9 1.9 8.0 77.3 48.6 42.0 0.8 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.7 15.2 12.4 89.1 52.9 45.4 6.6 13.9 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 1.6 3.6 12.0 85.5 52.5 45.1 0.7 3.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.0 13.0 89.9 54.0 46.5 0.8 5.0 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.4 6.3 11.2 89.2 53.9 45.2 1.1 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.1 5.4 10.8 87.7 51.5 44.5 0.3 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 2.3 5.7 11.6 86.0 48.5 43.8 1.8 5.8 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.5 13.1 86.3 52.7 44.6 2.6 3.5 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.9 9.7 77.0 56.0 41.7 2.2 4.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.1 11.2 88.2 53.3 44.2 1.4 7.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.0 1.9 7.6 71.8 45.7 40.4 0.9 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 6.9 5.4 14.0 91.3 55.4 48.0 1.4 3.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 1.8 4.2 8.6 79.4 49.7 42.7 1.1 4.3 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 1.4 3.9 16.3 89.0 52.0 45.5 1.1 3.6 7.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 1.2 2.7 10.5 80.7 51.4 43.6 1.1 2.6 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 0.6 0.9 8.0 71.6 44.9 40.6 0.5 1.0 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 0.8 1.9 9.5 81.9 52.3 43.4 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 2.1 6.5 12.3 87.1 55.5 46.5 1.2 4.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 2.0 4.2 10.9 78.9 48.9 42.3 0.4 4.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 1.1 2.3 11.1 83.7 50.5 43.6 0.7 2.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.6 5.6 10.1 78.9 50.0 42.7 1.2 5.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.9 5.1 10.6 82.9 55.6 43.0 1.6 4.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 3.9 8.2 14.8 91.4 54.2 47.5 3.6 8.1 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 1.1 2.7 8.5 78.0 50.3 42.3 0.7 2.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------