***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.7 10.9 88.7 54.2 48.2 3.6 6.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.0 9.6 9.5 86.7 57.5 47.2 5.3 9.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 5.2 13.3 11.1 90.7 57.5 48.6 5.1 10.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.3 13.6 13.1 92.3 54.3 47.3 5.4 8.7 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.7 13.4 94.1 56.5 47.7 5.4 9.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.8 12.7 87.6 53.7 45.6 3.2 5.2 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.3 9.3 87.7 57.0 47.2 2.6 7.4 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 20.8 19.8 15.6 99.4 55.9 48.3 12.8 17.8 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.3 13.9 93.5 57.0 48.0 4.3 6.7 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.9 15.1 94.8 54.4 47.6 8.4 12.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.5 13.4 96.5 55.4 48.4 3.0 5.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.4 13.4 96.2 54.3 47.6 3.1 6.9 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.2 13.0 88.8 50.2 46.0 3.9 7.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.8 16.3 14.2 87.8 54.8 46.3 10.0 15.6 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.2 8.5 11.5 86.4 53.4 45.6 1.1 6.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 9.7 8.2 12.8 91.9 52.6 47.3 1.5 7.3 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.9 7.1 8.6 80.0 56.2 45.1 2.9 6.4 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 10.8 14.9 88.1 52.4 45.5 7.3 10.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.1 10.6 10.0 87.2 57.1 47.6 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.4 10.5 19.7 95.1 55.8 47.3 4.3 9.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.6 8.3 12.3 89.7 54.6 47.9 3.0 7.4 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.3 9.4 81.1 55.1 45.3 5.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 4.3 8.1 10.9 87.8 55.1 47.6 3.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 6.4 11.9 13.3 87.2 53.5 45.9 9.1 11.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.3 10.4 12.4 88.4 52.0 47.6 2.3 9.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.5 12.5 86.3 52.3 45.2 2.4 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.7 6.7 11.5 88.8 53.5 47.8 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.3 5.7 12.1 89.3 53.4 45.9 2.1 4.3 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 8.6 16.5 15.9 88.2 52.7 45.4 12.1 15.8 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.4 11.4 10.1 90.7 58.8 48.3 4.2 7.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------