***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 1.0 1.3 4.3 37.9 29.7 24.4 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 1.1 0.9 3.5 35.6 27.2 25.0 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 1.9 1.1 4.6 39.5 27.6 24.2 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.1 2.9 7.9 61.6 44.0 35.5 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 1.7 2.6 7.7 59.0 39.4 33.2 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 3.4 7.2 8.6 68.9 46.5 38.0 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 1.1 0.9 3.4 35.4 27.8 24.7 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 5.8 7.6 8.9 62.5 39.4 34.3 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 1.0 2.0 7.7 57.4 39.1 32.1 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.6 4.5 8.6 60.8 39.4 34.4 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.2 2.9 8.3 63.0 42.0 34.8 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 2.1 4.8 8.1 62.8 41.1 33.5 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 3.2 5.4 9.1 68.4 44.8 37.0 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.1 6.5 44.8 29.0 28.0 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 0.6 1.5 7.0 59.8 47.5 35.3 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.5 5.7 8.6 67.2 44.7 36.1 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 1.3 1.0 3.2 32.8 27.7 24.5 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 1.4 1.4 8.6 58.0 36.2 32.7 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 0.9 1.5 3.9 37.7 27.7 25.8 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 3.7 3.5 11.0 61.5 39.0 33.5 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 1.4 2.0 6.5 50.8 34.2 29.1 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 77 23 0 100 1.3 0.9 3.4 33.6 27.5 24.5 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 76 24 0 100 1.2 1.3 4.7 41.8 28.1 27.3 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 1.9 1.4 6.6 47.6 30.0 28.2 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 1.5 2.3 5.9 43.1 30.3 26.6 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.2 6.4 8.1 63.4 41.5 35.6 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 1.8 1.2 4.8 39.0 29.6 25.1 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 1.6 3.6 7.8 64.4 48.0 36.0 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 4.7 5.0 9.1 58.3 36.1 33.0 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 1.0 0.7 3.7 36.5 26.9 24.7 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------