***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 2.3 3.4 2.3 29.3 30.4 25.2 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 0.7 1.3 1.9 27.0 31.1 24.7 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 1.7 2.6 2.7 33.4 32.0 26.1 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 5.1 7.8 3.8 39.4 35.5 28.5 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 5.6 6.1 4.2 44.2 35.3 30.0 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 5.6 5.6 61.6 46.1 38.7 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 0.8 0.9 1.7 25.4 30.0 23.4 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 10.7 13.5 6.3 59.8 42.8 36.1 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.0 43.3 34.7 29.8 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.5 6.1 6.0 55.5 40.0 34.2 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 4.3 5.4 5.0 50.0 39.1 32.1 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.6 7.1 5.3 57.1 42.5 34.9 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 5.2 8.4 5.9 58.7 42.2 35.8 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 3.6 5.2 4.2 37.8 33.9 28.5 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.0 3.1 38.7 45.5 33.5 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 4.0 6.3 4.8 50.4 39.6 33.4 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 0.8 1.1 1.8 27.3 32.5 25.2 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 4.0 4.2 6.0 54.7 38.0 33.6 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 1.2 1.5 2.2 29.6 32.6 25.2 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.6 5.8 6.9 58.2 38.3 35.2 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.5 2.2 3.3 37.1 33.3 27.4 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 79 21 0 100 1.5 2.0 2.0 28.6 33.4 25.7 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 83 17 0 100 1.3 2.6 2.7 33.1 34.2 26.1 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 70 30 0 100 3.6 5.1 4.5 44.0 35.5 30.0 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 2.5 3.1 3.0 31.8 31.0 25.3 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 5.6 7.1 5.6 62.7 45.5 38.9 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 81 19 0 100 2.5 3.6 2.3 28.2 30.7 24.9 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.2 2.1 3.9 43.7 42.5 32.6 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 10.0 13.3 6.2 54.7 37.5 33.5 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 1.1 1.5 2.0 28.1 31.4 24.6 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------