***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 6.0 6.0 6.2 -2.0 28.3 30.1 6.4 9.4 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.2 5.2 6.4 -1.9 28.2 31.0 6.1 7.6 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 5.9 6.3 6.6 -2.1 28.4 30.3 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -1.6 -0.6 3.7 -2.0 29.2 31.7 -0.3 0.6 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 5.2 6.8 4.7 -2.3 28.2 29.3 7.2 8.6 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 4.8 5.3 2.4 -2.9 20.9 23.5 6.2 7.4 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.0 5.0 6.2 -1.9 27.0 30.0 5.6 7.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -2.7 -2.7 3.4 -2.5 24.5 27.9 -1.9 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 70 30 0 100 5.8 6.8 5.5 -2.2 28.1 29.7 7.3 8.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.9 6.7 4.1 -2.4 26.0 28.7 7.4 8.7 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 5.7 7.0 4.8 -2.4 27.3 28.6 7.4 8.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 5.7 6.4 4.1 -2.5 24.4 27.1 6.8 8.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 6.0 6.7 3.7 -2.7 22.9 25.4 7.3 8.7 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.2 6.8 5.9 -2.0 28.9 32.1 6.9 8.9 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.0 5.1 -1.8 28.4 32.5 5.7 7.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 6.3 7.2 4.1 -2.5 25.7 27.3 7.6 9.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 4.9 4.7 6.2 -1.9 27.4 30.4 5.7 7.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.6 6.1 3.9 -2.2 26.6 30.3 6.7 7.9 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.4 6.6 -1.8 29.1 31.6 5.9 7.5 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 2.2 1.6 1.7 -2.3 23.7 29.0 2.7 4.1 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 5.7 6.7 6.1 -2.2 26.9 29.2 7.2 8.8 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.4 5.4 6.6 -1.7 29.0 31.8 6.2 7.6 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.6 5.9 6.8 -1.9 29.6 31.8 6.4 8.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 6.3 6.6 5.6 -2.1 28.8 30.9 7.3 8.7 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 5.0 6.0 4.9 -2.1 27.5 29.8 6.3 7.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 82 18 0 100 6.0 5.5 2.8 -3.0 17.6 22.0 7.0 8.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 5.9 5.8 5.6 -2.1 27.3 29.3 6.3 8.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.9 6.0 4.1 -2.1 27.6 30.7 6.4 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 2.1 1.8 3.3 -2.2 26.9 30.8 2.8 3.9 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 5.2 5.4 6.3 -1.9 28.3 30.8 5.9 7.6 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------