***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 6.7 9.2 7.6 -1.2 37.4 41.4 6.8 11.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.9 7.6 7.6 -1.1 37.2 41.3 7.3 8.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 6.4 8.4 8.1 -1.1 37.6 42.2 8.1 10.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -0.1 1.1 5.4 -1.0 39.5 42.6 0.1 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.2 9.4 6.4 -0.9 39.4 43.3 8.7 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.8 8.8 4.8 -0.9 42.8 44.4 7.4 9.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.5 7.6 -1.1 37.0 40.8 7.4 8.4 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.4 -0.5 5.7 -0.6 41.8 46.2 -1.0 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.4 10.2 7.0 -0.9 40.1 43.8 8.8 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 7.7 10.8 6.2 -0.7 41.3 45.4 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.3 9.8 6.6 -0.8 40.5 44.6 8.6 11.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.1 9.3 6.4 -0.7 41.7 45.5 8.4 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 8.0 10.2 5.6 -0.7 43.7 45.5 8.8 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.1 10.7 7.3 -0.7 40.8 45.3 8.9 11.8 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 6.7 5.9 -1.1 37.5 42.4 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.1 10.3 6.0 -0.8 41.0 44.5 9.0 11.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.3 6.9 7.5 -1.2 37.3 40.5 6.7 8.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 7.0 10.1 6.2 -0.6 41.8 46.5 8.7 10.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 5.7 7.7 7.9 -1.0 37.6 42.0 7.3 9.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.3 3.9 -0.4 44.3 47.5 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.2 9.3 7.5 -1.1 37.7 42.6 8.5 11.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 10.7 7.3 7.7 -1.0 38.3 41.4 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.5 8.9 8.2 -0.9 38.6 43.0 8.5 10.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.6 11.0 7.2 -0.7 40.4 45.1 8.9 11.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 6.2 7.9 6.1 -1.1 37.6 42.0 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.5 9.3 5.4 -0.8 41.4 44.1 8.4 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 6.7 8.1 7.0 -1.1 38.3 41.5 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 5.9 8.0 5.6 -1.1 38.2 42.6 7.1 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 5.3 5.4 -0.5 43.5 47.0 4.6 6.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 5.8 8.0 7.7 -1.1 37.3 41.4 7.4 9.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------