***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 5.4 5.4 5.7 -2.1 30.2 35.2 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.6 6.0 -1.8 32.7 37.3 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 5.1 5.1 6.0 -2.2 30.7 35.3 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 -2.0 -0.9 2.9 -2.1 31.7 36.1 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.1 5.2 4.1 -2.5 30.3 33.8 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 4.2 3.5 1.5 -3.4 22.0 28.1 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.6 5.8 -1.8 31.0 36.7 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 -3.1 -2.7 2.9 -2.6 29.7 33.9 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 5.7 5.8 5.1 -2.4 31.1 34.4 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 5.6 5.5 3.6 -2.6 29.7 33.9 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 5.6 5.1 4.2 -2.6 28.2 33.2 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 5.3 4.3 3.6 -2.6 28.6 33.1 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 5.2 5.3 3.2 -3.0 24.4 30.2 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.4 5.7 5.6 -2.1 33.5 37.3 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.3 4.5 4.7 -1.9 32.7 37.3 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 5.7 5.4 3.4 -2.8 25.9 31.5 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.7 4.8 5.9 -1.7 33.1 37.7 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.5 5.4 3.4 -2.3 29.4 35.8 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.9 4.8 6.2 -1.8 33.2 37.3 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 1.2 1.2 1.5 -2.1 30.9 36.1 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 5.6 5.6 5.6 -2.4 29.3 33.8 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 3.8 4.9 6.3 -1.6 33.7 38.2 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.3 5.6 6.3 -1.9 33.0 37.0 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 6.0 5.8 5.2 -2.2 31.1 36.0 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.6 5.1 4.3 -2.2 30.9 34.3 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 5.7 5.5 2.2 -3.1 24.1 29.1 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 5.2 5.1 5.1 -2.1 30.6 34.4 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 4.2 5.1 3.6 -2.2 30.3 35.3 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 1.9 1.9 2.9 -2.1 30.9 37.0 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.0 4.6 5.9 -1.9 31.9 36.7 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------