***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 2.6 2.0 1.9 -4.9 15.0 16.6 4.6 5.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 2.4 1.9 2.1 -4.6 16.7 18.6 2.9 5.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 2.4 1.9 2.0 -5.1 17.3 18.0 4.1 6.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 -4.5 -5.7 -1.1 -4.9 14.1 17.6 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 83 17 0 100 2.1 0.8 -0.1 -5.6 12.0 14.9 4.3 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 88 12 0 100 1.0 -0.8 -3.0 -7.3 4.5 9.5 3.5 4.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 1.9 1.4 1.8 -4.8 15.9 17.3 2.6 4.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 82 18 0 100 -5.4 -8.8 -2.1 -6.7 7.2 12.7 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 2.4 0.8 1.1 -5.5 12.4 15.9 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 82 18 0 100 2.7 0.7 -1.0 -6.3 9.9 14.2 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 82 18 0 100 2.8 0.9 0.1 -6.0 10.2 14.0 4.3 6.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 83 17 0 100 1.9 -0.6 -1.2 -6.5 7.0 12.3 4.4 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 2.1 0.1 -1.0 -6.9 6.7 10.9 4.2 5.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 80 20 0 100 2.6 1.9 1.7 -5.2 16.5 18.7 3.1 6.5 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 2.1 1.3 1.6 -4.3 15.4 18.5 3.5 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 84 16 0 100 2.7 0.5 -0.7 -6.3 8.4 12.6 4.5 6.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 1.9 1.2 1.8 -4.6 15.4 17.6 2.3 4.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 2.0 0.2 -1.3 -6.1 12.0 15.6 4.1 5.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 1.9 1.4 2.3 -4.6 17.8 19.7 3.0 5.3 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 -1.0 -3.6 -3.5 -6.6 8.5 14.1 0.6 2.1 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 2.2 1.0 1.7 -5.5 12.6 15.1 4.6 6.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 81 19 0 100 1.9 1.4 2.5 -4.3 17.1 19.3 2.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 81 19 0 100 2.1 1.8 2.4 -4.6 19.0 20.3 2.8 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 2.3 0.8 1.1 -5.6 14.4 16.8 4.1 6.5 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 83 17 0 100 1.4 0.0 0.7 -5.1 11.1 15.0 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 1.5 -1.6 -3.1 -7.7 2.2 7.5 4.0 5.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 84 16 0 100 1.9 0.2 1.3 -5.1 10.7 14.6 4.1 4.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 82 18 0 100 2.4 0.6 -0.2 -5.0 12.8 16.5 3.7 6.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 -1.8 -4.2 -1.9 -6.1 11.9 16.0 0.4 1.7 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 83 17 0 100 1.9 1.4 2.0 -4.7 17.2 18.1 3.3 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------