***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 -2.4 -3.5 -2.6 -2.5 15.9 23.0 -1.2 0.3 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 73 27 0 100 -3.4 -4.2 -2.4 -2.2 18.2 24.5 -1.8 -0.6 0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 70 30 0 100 -0.9 -1.5 -2.2 -2.2 20.0 25.3 0.0 1.3 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 -7.1 -7.6 -5.0 -2.3 18.3 25.3 -6.7 -5.0 -2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 -3.3 -4.0 -4.5 -2.4 19.3 25.3 -1.8 -1.1 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 -4.5 -5.0 -7.5 -3.3 12.4 17.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 -3.2 -3.8 -2.5 -2.3 17.7 24.2 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 -10.0 -10.8 -6.9 -2.9 16.4 22.2 -9.0 -7.0 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 -2.2 -2.7 -3.9 -2.0 21.9 27.8 -1.4 -0.2 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 -2.4 -2.7 -5.9 -2.6 18.7 24.7 -1.6 -0.4 0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 -2.4 -3.1 -4.9 -2.3 19.2 25.7 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 -3.8 -4.7 -6.0 -2.8 15.7 22.6 -2.5 -1.5 -1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 -3.2 -3.8 -6.6 -3.2 11.4 18.4 -1.4 -0.9 -0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 -1.7 -1.9 -4.0 -2.0 23.6 29.0 -1.2 0.1 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 -2.5 -3.2 -3.3 -1.9 18.7 26.3 -1.2 -0.4 0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 74 26 0 100 -2.1 -2.9 -5.8 -2.7 15.0 22.0 -0.7 0.1 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 75 25 0 100 -3.5 -4.3 -2.5 -2.2 17.5 24.6 -1.5 -0.7 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -4.6 -5.4 -6.4 -2.5 18.8 25.8 -2.9 -2.3 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 -3.1 -3.8 -2.4 -2.1 19.5 25.4 -1.8 -0.9 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 85 15 0 100 -8.9 -10.5 -8.4 -3.2 12.3 19.0 -6.9 -5.0 -3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 -2.6 -3.2 -2.9 -2.2 19.8 25.9 -1.6 -0.7 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 -3.3 -4.2 -2.3 -2.0 20.1 26.3 -2.0 -1.1 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 -3.1 -3.2 -2.4 -1.9 22.1 26.9 -1.8 -1.1 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 -2.6 -2.3 -4.1 -2.0 23.2 28.5 -1.9 -0.5 -0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 -2.5 -3.2 -3.7 -2.5 17.9 23.9 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 -3.5 -4.2 -7.3 -3.8 8.7 14.7 -1.7 -0.7 -0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 -2.4 -3.2 -3.1 -2.6 16.6 22.8 -1.7 -0.3 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 70 30 0 100 -3.8 -4.5 -4.6 -2.3 16.8 24.7 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -5.9 -6.4 -7.0 -2.6 17.2 24.8 -4.7 -4.1 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 -2.9 -3.7 -2.4 -2.2 18.8 24.2 -1.4 -0.3 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------