***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.03.2021.-14.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 -0.9 0.0 0.5 -0.6 39.2 46.4 -0.2 0.8 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -0.7 -0.2 0.7 -0.4 42.2 47.6 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 0.9 1.5 0.7 -0.5 40.4 46.5 1.1 2.3 3.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 -5.9 -5.3 -2.3 -0.7 38.4 45.5 -5.4 -3.8 -2.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 -2.2 -1.3 -1.8 -0.6 38.8 46.4 -1.5 -0.6 0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 -2.6 -1.9 -4.2 -0.7 38.3 44.1 -2.6 -1.0 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -0.9 0.1 0.7 -0.4 43.2 47.9 -0.6 0.4 1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -8.3 -8.5 -3.9 -0.8 37.4 44.3 -8.6 -7.0 -4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 -1.1 0.3 -1.5 -0.6 39.4 46.1 -0.4 0.7 1.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 -0.8 0.0 -3.2 -0.7 38.7 44.8 -0.4 1.1 1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 -1.2 0.1 -2.5 -0.7 38.3 45.1 -1.1 0.7 1.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -2.1 -1.9 -3.2 -0.8 37.4 44.3 -2.0 -0.7 -0.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 -1.7 -0.3 -3.6 -0.8 37.8 43.2 -0.9 0.3 0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 -0.6 0.0 -1.5 -0.5 41.8 46.5 -0.3 1.3 2.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.3 -0.8 36.9 43.9 -0.4 1.4 2.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -0.3 0.2 -3.2 -0.8 37.5 44.2 -0.1 1.0 1.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.3 0.7 -0.3 44.2 48.0 -0.4 0.8 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -1.5 -3.8 -0.9 38.1 44.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 -1.0 0.2 0.6 -0.4 41.2 47.2 -0.4 0.3 1.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 -6.4 -5.0 -5.3 -1.0 36.0 43.1 -5.4 -4.1 -2.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 -1.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 39.5 46.3 -0.6 0.2 1.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -1.4 -0.4 0.4 -0.3 42.0 47.2 -0.7 0.1 1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 -1.5 -0.3 0.4 -0.4 40.9 46.6 -0.6 0.1 1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 -1.5 -0.1 -1.8 -0.6 39.4 45.5 -0.6 0.1 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 -0.9 -0.3 -1.0 -0.7 38.8 45.3 -0.8 0.2 1.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 -1.5 -1.0 -3.7 -1.0 34.1 42.8 -1.1 0.0 1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 -0.7 -0.5 0.0 -0.6 39.6 46.2 -0.7 0.3 1.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -2.1 -1.8 -2.1 -0.7 37.8 44.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 -4.5 -3.6 -4.2 -0.9 37.0 44.1 -4.0 -2.8 -0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -0.7 0.3 0.7 -0.4 41.7 47.4 -0.2 0.4 1.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------