***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 -4.8 -5.3 -6.6 -5.2 10.2 11.5 -2.8 -2.3 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 90 10 0 100 -5.9 -7.8 -6.6 -4.9 9.2 13.1 -4.0 -3.0 -1.7 30 Becej 27400G00 92 8 0 100 -3.6 -4.5 -6.2 -4.8 11.0 14.2 -2.2 -0.6 0.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 92 8 0 100 -10.3 -11.7 -8.6 -5.0 9.1 12.8 -7.9 -6.9 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 -5.8 -6.5 -7.9 -5.2 9.9 13.2 -4.0 -2.5 -1.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 93 7 0 100 -6.3 -9.9 -12.0 -7.2 2.9 8.2 -4.8 -4.0 -2.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 88 12 0 100 -4.9 -6.9 -6.8 -4.9 9.7 13.2 -4.0 -2.6 -1.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 -12.8 -15.4 -10.9 -6.2 7.0 11.9 -10.5 -9.4 -7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 90 10 0 100 -4.8 -5.4 -7.0 -4.3 12.7 16.5 -3.7 -1.8 -1.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 88 12 0 100 -4.7 -5.8 -9.7 -5.5 9.9 14.0 -3.6 -2.0 -1.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 -4.9 -5.8 -7.8 -4.8 11.4 14.1 -3.5 -1.9 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 -6.1 -7.5 -9.6 -5.9 6.0 11.4 -5.2 -3.6 -2.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 92 8 0 100 -5.2 -9.7 -10.5 -6.9 3.0 8.3 -3.3 -2.4 -1.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 86 14 0 100 -4.4 -5.4 -7.2 -4.1 13.9 19.4 -3.2 -1.5 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 93 7 0 100 -4.9 -5.5 -6.0 -3.8 11.7 14.5 -2.6 -1.6 -0.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 -4.4 -5.9 -9.2 -5.7 6.5 10.9 -2.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 90 10 0 100 -5.2 -8.5 -6.9 -5.0 7.8 12.5 -3.8 -2.5 -1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 87 13 0 100 -6.4 -7.3 -9.7 -5.1 11.0 16.6 -4.9 -3.9 -2.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 -5.8 -7.1 -6.4 -4.5 9.7 14.2 -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 90 10 0 100 -10.5 -12.4 -12.6 -6.9 4.7 11.6 -9.3 -7.2 -6.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 -5.3 -5.6 -6.4 -4.7 12.0 14.9 -3.5 -2.3 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 -6.0 -9.4 -6.1 -4.4 8.1 14.1 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 89 11 0 100 -5.1 -6.3 -6.1 -4.1 11.3 16.0 -3.9 -2.6 -1.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 -5.1 -5.9 -7.2 -4.3 12.7 17.8 -4.0 -2.1 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 96 4 0 100 -5.7 -6.6 -7.2 -5.2 8.6 11.6 -3.3 -2.3 -0.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 -5.2 -11.3 -12.5 -8.6 1.5 5.4 -3.9 -2.4 -1.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 95 5 0 100 -6.0 -7.0 -7.0 -5.4 8.0 10.2 -4.0 -2.7 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 93 7 0 100 -5.6 -8.2 -8.0 -4.8 9.6 12.9 -4.5 -2.6 -2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 87 13 0 100 -9.2 -10.3 -10.7 -5.3 9.4 16.7 -6.9 -5.9 -3.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 -5.9 -6.5 -6.5 -4.9 9.9 13.3 -3.6 -2.4 -1.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------