***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 32.0 47.3 46.4 116.6 66.7 62.2 22.5 26.8 46.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 41.9 41.4 48.9 129.3 70.3 69.1 16.8 31.5 38.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 38.3 42.0 48.1 116.6 64.2 62.3 27.5 33.0 43.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 41.2 49.8 50.7 110.3 63.1 57.7 26.9 34.6 54.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 41.3 38.5 51.4 110.4 61.8 57.6 26.6 34.2 47.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.7 38.2 53.1 110.9 59.8 57.2 20.9 33.5 41.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 43 57 100 39.0 40.2 48.2 131.2 74.2 69.8 19.8 25.4 31.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 64.2 74.8 59.4 119.2 65.7 62.2 53.9 58.3 75.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 35.7 41.3 51.2 108.7 60.8 56.2 21.8 32.4 42.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 42.9 43.7 58.0 114.6 63.0 59.8 29.8 39.7 46.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 39.6 40.3 48.3 110.7 59.4 56.8 23.6 35.2 43.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 36.8 39.7 48.8 114.9 61.4 59.2 26.0 30.9 43.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 40.0 42.2 51.7 115.7 59.8 59.9 29.6 35.8 47.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 44 56 100 64.6 68.7 64.2 123.2 70.4 66.1 37.9 50.2 66.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 38.7 47.0 48.3 112.6 63.6 58.2 16.0 31.0 51.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 36.2 37.7 48.2 111.6 59.3 57.0 22.3 30.5 41.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 40.3 44.9 47.4 131.1 75.5 70.3 19.1 27.5 34.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 38.9 46.3 68.5 123.1 68.1 65.9 29.8 35.3 43.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 45 55 100 40.0 42.7 49.6 126.5 69.6 67.7 22.7 33.8 41.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 51.8 60.9 88.2 135.3 78.5 72.2 27.0 34.1 43.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 39.0 40.7 47.5 108.7 59.6 57.3 23.0 34.9 46.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 37.4 39.6 50.9 130.2 75.4 70.9 21.8 29.5 33.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 33.8 40.6 51.6 122.4 70.7 65.2 22.8 32.0 39.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 45.2 56.8 59.6 118.7 65.3 63.3 32.4 40.0 58.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 37.7 53.5 54.5 115.5 66.8 62.5 23.4 32.6 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 35.0 36.1 51.1 117.0 60.4 60.6 28.1 31.9 41.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 32.3 49.3 52.3 118.3 67.1 63.6 20.6 26.8 46.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 40.2 38.8 48.7 110.2 61.5 56.5 15.3 33.9 49.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 78.0 92.9 76.8 129.8 76.4 69.6 45.5 54.8 82.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 36.2 41.3 48.4 126.2 69.7 67.2 18.4 33.8 40.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------