***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.4 3.9 7.2 68.4 44.9 38.6 1.0 4.8 6.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 0.7 1.4 7.6 76.9 48.5 42.6 0.7 1.5 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 2.1 4.4 8.2 75.3 49.5 41.4 1.3 4.5 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 3.2 9.4 10.1 86.4 57.9 45.9 4.6 8.1 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.7 6.3 10.1 85.8 55.8 46.1 0.7 4.9 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.1 5.6 13.4 106.0 60.2 52.1 1.6 4.3 6.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.9 7.2 74.3 48.2 42.1 0.8 2.2 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 12.0 95.5 55.8 51.2 6.6 13.9 17.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 1.3 4.2 10.1 82.3 54.4 45.0 0.7 3.4 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.3 5.0 11.5 87.5 54.2 47.8 0.8 5.0 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.5 6.3 9.9 89.8 54.7 48.1 1.1 5.9 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.2 10.5 99.3 56.3 52.4 0.3 4.8 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.2 7.1 11.9 104.4 59.8 52.5 1.8 5.8 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.5 11.5 83.4 50.6 45.0 2.6 3.5 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.8 9.9 89.0 54.4 46.7 2.2 4.3 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.5 9.0 10.8 98.3 57.7 50.3 1.4 7.7 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 0.9 2.5 7.1 77.4 52.8 43.7 0.9 2.2 3.9 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.7 5.3 13.2 89.7 55.0 49.5 1.4 3.8 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 2.0 4.1 7.9 77.0 49.5 42.3 1.1 4.3 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.4 16.3 99.5 60.1 53.5 1.1 3.6 7.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 1.1 2.6 8.6 75.9 49.2 41.7 1.1 2.6 4.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.5 7.8 78.6 55.9 44.4 0.5 1.0 3.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 0.9 1.9 8.6 76.9 50.3 42.0 0.4 1.9 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 1.9 6.1 11.1 83.2 52.2 45.7 1.2 4.4 8.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.0 4.0 9.0 74.7 47.4 40.9 0.4 4.4 6.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.3 4.4 11.9 110.1 63.6 54.3 0.7 2.3 5.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.0 4.0 8.2 70.4 44.7 39.2 1.2 5.6 6.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 1.6 5.3 10.6 92.1 57.6 48.1 1.6 4.1 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.5 14.3 92.9 55.8 50.7 3.6 8.1 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 1.1 1.5 7.7 75.7 47.9 41.8 0.7 2.5 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------