***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9.0 7.6 10.5 97.6 60.1 50.9 3.6 6.1 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.7 10.4 10.7 102.2 66.5 52.9 5.3 9.4 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 13.4 14.1 11.0 98.9 60.1 51.7 5.1 10.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 10.8 14.3 12.4 99.6 59.5 51.4 5.4 8.7 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.5 15.0 12.7 104.6 61.7 53.1 5.4 9.2 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.7 14.4 107.4 60.4 53.5 3.2 5.2 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.5 12.4 10.7 104.4 65.3 53.3 2.6 7.4 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 20.5 27.2 14.1 109.7 63.6 54.2 12.8 17.8 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 8.8 13.2 12.7 105.4 62.6 53.1 4.3 6.7 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.4 14.0 109.1 63.3 54.1 8.4 12.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 7.9 9.2 12.1 106.0 63.2 53.4 3.0 5.8 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.4 9.7 12.0 107.5 62.2 53.8 3.1 6.9 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.3 9.3 13.0 106.2 58.9 54.2 3.9 7.2 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 18.5 23.0 14.2 102.8 58.7 52.6 10.0 15.6 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.0 11.8 11.3 94.9 58.6 50.7 1.1 6.0 14.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 9.0 9.7 12.1 104.1 60.0 52.9 1.5 7.3 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.3 10.1 96.5 64.2 52.3 2.9 6.4 7.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.7 15.7 113.2 66.1 55.6 7.3 10.3 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.0 10.9 101.2 65.3 52.5 4.0 7.6 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.3 19.2 115.0 66.8 56.8 4.3 9.4 12.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.4 11.5 98.9 59.6 51.9 3.0 7.4 15.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.1 10.6 95.6 63.7 53.3 5.1 8.9 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.4 9.0 11.6 101.5 61.9 52.6 3.7 7.6 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 14.3 16.6 13.6 105.3 61.8 53.0 9.1 11.8 19.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.3 12.6 101.3 59.6 52.3 2.3 9.6 15.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.7 13.4 110.1 57.3 53.9 2.4 6.1 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.7 12.0 101.8 59.2 52.2 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 7.3 8.1 12.0 97.9 57.9 50.9 2.1 4.3 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 17.6 18.3 17.2 116.0 66.3 56.6 12.1 15.8 18.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.9 16.6 10.8 103.0 65.7 52.5 4.2 7.1 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------