***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.0 13.4 10.9 113.9 68.0 52.4 1.6 4.1 12.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 9.8 11.3 124.3 70.3 55.5 1.2 4.0 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.9 14.2 11.6 118.8 71.7 54.8 2.3 5.5 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 8.7 7.7 11.1 103.6 58.5 50.4 2.2 4.5 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.3 12.8 116.5 63.1 53.7 2.4 4.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 10.6 15.0 13.9 119.1 68.4 55.7 3.9 7.8 10.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 5.4 8.7 11.2 127.4 68.4 55.8 1.1 3.5 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 18.1 15.8 129.1 66.8 58.0 6.8 10.4 18.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.2 5.8 13.3 116.3 62.9 52.9 1.7 3.0 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.2 12.7 15.6 125.5 66.5 56.4 3.4 6.1 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.5 12.8 123.8 63.7 56.5 1.8 6.1 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.3 9.0 12.9 127.4 64.7 57.5 2.7 6.2 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.9 17.6 13.3 128.8 70.5 58.6 2.7 7.0 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.5 14.1 15.8 125.0 70.5 56.3 2.2 9.1 11.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.5 4.7 10.3 99.4 62.2 51.2 0.0 1.8 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.3 12.3 121.7 64.1 56.2 2.4 6.3 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.6 10.0 10.9 132.2 71.1 54.2 2.3 5.0 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 13.8 18.1 127.9 69.4 57.7 1.2 3.5 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.7 10.3 11.6 122.4 70.5 55.5 2.0 3.8 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.9 21.5 128.9 69.1 58.0 2.6 9.0 10.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.3 8.9 11.8 114.3 64.1 52.1 1.8 4.4 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.4 10.0 11.6 126.8 69.0 54.1 1.7 4.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.4 8.7 12.2 121.4 70.9 55.2 1.9 3.8 7.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.2 12.9 15.3 125.0 69.8 56.3 1.8 4.9 8.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 7.4 12.2 13.1 115.6 62.7 54.6 2.5 4.5 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.7 14.2 12.8 124.3 66.2 57.4 3.1 8.5 14.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.3 12.6 116.6 65.0 54.6 1.7 5.6 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 7.2 9.4 10.6 102.1 60.1 50.4 0.9 4.6 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.7 24.9 19.8 128.8 70.3 58.4 3.4 11.1 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.7 10.5 11.3 120.5 69.5 55.2 1.4 4.2 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------