***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 12.7 19.0 17.8 199.0 85.2 78.9 3.9 9.4 11.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 14 86 100 12.3 19.9 19.2 231.6 92.0 84.0 1.3 2.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 15.5 21.2 17.2 182.7 81.9 76.9 2.7 5.4 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 12.5 13.3 17.1 154.2 75.2 71.5 7.1 10.2 12.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 14.3 16.2 15.7 135.9 73.0 66.2 6.1 8.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 6.7 7.2 11.5 112.3 62.6 57.9 4.4 5.8 8.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 13 87 100 12.7 18.9 19.2 236.5 91.9 85.0 1.3 4.2 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 19.0 25.1 17.5 144.8 75.6 66.9 11.0 17.8 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 11.0 12.3 15.1 132.9 73.5 64.8 4.0 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 10.5 14.9 16.9 138.9 74.2 66.0 5.6 9.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 86 14 100 8.2 10.8 13.5 124.5 68.1 61.8 5.2 6.8 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 88 12 100 9.6 15.3 13.4 126.3 67.0 62.0 5.3 8.4 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 10.2 11.7 13.4 126.3 67.9 63.1 6.5 9.6 11.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 16.3 26.8 22.6 191.5 86.7 77.6 5.0 7.6 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 14.2 19.7 16.8 176.3 80.8 75.6 1.1 3.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 8.3 12.5 12.9 124.5 69.3 61.9 4.0 7.2 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 10.2 29.0 19.2 235.1 93.4 83.6 1.2 3.6 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 15.6 23.3 21.6 166.7 85.1 74.8 3.8 7.2 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 18 82 100 11.4 22.9 19.2 220.5 89.4 81.9 1.5 3.0 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 23 77 100 17.2 35.2 31.2 203.0 91.8 80.8 5.1 9.7 16.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 13.3 15.4 15.7 148.8 75.0 70.2 2.2 5.2 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 20 80 100 11.3 30.6 20.9 233.2 92.9 83.4 2.0 4.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 25 75 100 10.4 15.3 19.2 202.3 83.8 78.7 2.3 4.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 12.5 24.4 19.6 167.8 83.2 74.6 5.0 7.9 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 12.3 15.0 19.8 174.9 80.8 77.9 3.2 6.8 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 9.8 10.2 13.0 125.1 62.4 62.5 4.9 9.4 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 12.3 18.3 19.6 194.0 85.6 80.3 3.7 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 11.4 12.3 15.5 154.8 76.4 70.8 1.5 4.8 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 25.4 47.3 25.5 188.6 90.2 79.2 11.7 15.6 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 12.0 18.4 18.7 221.9 89.1 82.7 1.5 4.6 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------