***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 17 83 100 11.6 12.7 10.7 2.6 83.8 79.2 6.4 9.4 11.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 11.2 12.1 10.5 2.4 79.2 77.3 6.1 7.6 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 11.8 12.9 10.8 2.5 83.0 77.9 6.6 8.6 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 21 79 100 4.4 6.0 8.7 2.7 82.8 78.9 -0.3 0.6 4.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 21 79 100 11.5 13.6 9.4 2.8 85.1 79.7 7.2 8.6 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 19 81 100 10.4 12.8 8.1 2.9 86.8 81.0 6.2 7.4 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 10.8 11.9 10.4 2.5 80.9 78.1 5.6 7.4 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 1.5 2.3 8.0 2.4 81.9 77.5 -1.9 -0.7 0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 12.0 13.6 10.0 2.6 84.7 78.7 7.3 8.8 11.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 19 81 100 11.9 12.9 8.9 2.5 82.5 77.6 7.4 8.7 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 12.0 13.5 9.2 2.7 84.4 79.4 7.4 8.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 11.2 12.6 8.8 2.5 83.2 78.7 6.8 8.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 11.8 13.7 8.8 2.7 84.6 80.6 7.3 8.7 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 12.4 13.5 9.8 2.2 77.9 73.7 6.9 8.9 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 11.4 12.8 9.4 2.8 80.9 79.1 5.7 7.4 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 12.3 14.3 9.0 2.8 84.8 80.5 7.6 9.1 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 24 76 100 10.5 11.4 10.1 2.2 77.0 75.8 5.7 7.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 11.5 12.7 8.3 2.3 80.5 76.1 6.7 7.9 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 11.3 12.3 10.7 2.4 79.2 76.8 5.9 7.5 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 20 80 100 6.8 7.8 6.0 2.1 80.2 75.7 2.7 4.1 6.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 11.9 13.5 10.5 2.7 85.2 78.9 7.2 8.8 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 11.1 12.3 10.2 2.1 75.6 74.5 6.2 7.6 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 11.7 12.9 10.7 2.4 79.0 76.1 6.4 8.3 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 12.1 13.1 9.8 2.3 80.0 75.8 7.3 8.7 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 11.0 12.9 9.3 2.7 85.2 79.8 6.3 7.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 10.9 12.9 8.3 2.7 86.0 81.2 7.0 8.6 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 11.2 12.5 10.0 2.7 84.1 79.7 6.3 8.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 22 78 100 11.8 13.9 9.2 2.8 82.2 78.8 6.4 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 20 80 100 7.0 7.9 7.4 2.2 79.5 75.8 2.8 3.9 7.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 10.8 12.1 10.7 2.5 81.8 78.1 5.9 7.6 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------