***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.03.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 11.3 10.9 11.3 1.0 59.8 58.2 8.0 10.5 12.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 11.3 12.2 11.3 1.1 61.8 58.5 8.3 10.6 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.9 11.3 0.9 58.4 57.2 8.2 11.2 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.3 3.6 9.3 1.1 59.7 58.7 0.0 2.2 4.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 12.0 11.6 9.6 0.9 56.8 57.2 8.2 11.2 13.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.5 8.0 0.9 58.0 56.7 6.5 9.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 11.1 11.6 11.2 1.1 61.9 58.9 8.3 10.4 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 1.2 1.5 8.1 0.7 56.8 55.6 -2.0 0.5 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.6 10.1 0.8 56.9 56.5 8.1 10.8 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 11.9 11.8 8.9 0.7 56.8 55.9 8.5 11.0 13.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.4 9.2 0.8 54.9 56.2 8.2 10.9 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 10.8 10.9 8.9 0.7 55.6 55.5 7.9 10.0 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 11.4 11.8 8.5 0.8 58.0 56.2 9.2 10.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.5 10.1 0.8 55.9 56.2 8.8 11.8 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.3 9.5 1.1 57.8 58.5 7.6 10.3 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.0 9.0 0.8 57.4 56.4 8.5 11.4 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 11.0 12.1 11.0 1.1 61.2 58.7 7.3 10.4 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.5 8.4 0.7 56.4 55.5 8.6 10.4 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 11.3 12.3 11.4 1.0 61.0 58.1 7.8 10.6 13.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 6.6 7.0 6.0 0.7 58.5 55.9 3.7 6.0 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.8 10.8 0.9 56.9 57.1 8.6 11.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 11.9 12.8 11.2 1.0 60.4 58.4 8.1 11.3 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 12.2 12.4 11.4 1.0 58.8 57.6 8.7 11.6 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.2 10.0 0.8 55.5 55.9 8.6 11.3 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.2 9.7 1.1 60.6 59.0 7.3 10.3 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.4 8.3 0.7 59.1 56.6 8.7 10.9 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 11.3 12.2 10.5 1.1 62.3 58.8 8.3 10.5 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.9 9.5 1.0 58.0 58.0 7.6 10.8 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.5 6.6 7.4 0.7 57.6 55.8 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.8 11.4 1.1 61.2 58.3 7.7 10.5 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------