***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.5 10.9 1.8 67.4 64.9 6.8 11.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 11.7 12.8 10.8 1.8 64.6 64.1 7.3 8.9 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 11.4 13.5 11.0 1.8 64.5 63.8 8.1 10.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 6.5 6.7 9.0 2.0 69.8 65.1 0.1 3.3 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.7 9.3 1.8 68.4 63.4 8.7 11.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 12.8 13.3 7.8 1.7 66.4 62.8 7.4 9.6 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 11.4 12.6 10.7 1.8 65.3 64.5 7.4 8.4 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 1.4 2.6 7.8 1.4 61.3 60.8 -1.0 0.8 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 12.0 13.0 9.9 1.7 65.0 62.5 8.8 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.0 8.7 1.6 61.8 61.4 8.6 11.3 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.7 13.8 9.0 1.7 65.0 62.3 8.6 11.4 14.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 11.0 10.9 8.7 1.5 61.2 61.7 8.4 10.1 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.5 11.9 8.3 1.5 58.8 61.8 8.8 10.5 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.4 13.2 10.1 1.8 60.5 62.2 8.9 11.8 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 13.3 14.1 9.2 2.1 71.6 66.1 6.3 8.6 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.6 14.1 8.7 1.7 64.8 62.9 9.0 11.1 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 11.1 12.1 10.5 1.7 65.0 63.9 6.7 8.3 12.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 11.2 11.7 8.3 1.5 60.4 60.9 8.7 10.5 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 12.7 11.0 1.8 64.3 63.9 7.3 9.2 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.7 5.8 1.1 60.4 59.1 4.6 5.7 8.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 11.9 13.5 10.5 1.8 67.0 63.7 8.5 11.2 13.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 10.5 12.7 10.7 1.7 64.3 63.7 7.0 9.6 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 11.2 12.9 11.1 1.8 63.1 63.4 8.5 10.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 12.1 13.2 9.9 1.7 61.1 62.2 8.9 11.6 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 12.6 12.8 9.3 2.0 68.2 65.2 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 13.2 12.3 8.0 1.5 62.1 62.9 8.4 10.4 13.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 12.7 13.1 10.1 1.9 66.4 65.2 7.9 10.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.6 9.2 2.0 70.5 65.0 7.1 9.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 7.0 8.0 7.3 1.4 60.5 60.3 4.6 6.1 9.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 9.9 12.7 10.9 1.8 64.8 64.3 7.4 9.0 12.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------