***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 8.7 11.4 9.2 1.7 65.1 64.4 5.4 7.7 11.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 7.1 9.2 9.2 1.6 62.6 63.2 4.6 6.1 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 8.0 9.7 9.4 1.7 63.5 63.9 5.3 6.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 5.1 4.2 7.6 2.1 70.1 67.5 -0.8 0.1 2.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 11.1 9.5 7.8 1.9 66.4 65.3 5.5 7.2 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.8 8.0 6.2 1.5 62.2 62.4 4.8 6.9 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 6.7 8.6 9.0 1.5 62.2 63.0 4.6 5.6 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -0.5 0.7 6.4 1.5 62.6 62.5 -2.6 -1.1 0.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.5 9.5 8.4 1.8 63.2 64.2 6.1 7.4 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 8.7 9.5 7.3 1.6 62.3 63.0 5.5 7.7 10.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 8.9 9.7 7.5 1.8 64.3 64.6 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 8.3 10.4 7.2 1.6 63.4 63.8 5.2 7.5 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 8.8 10.3 6.8 1.5 61.9 62.9 6.0 7.8 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 9.3 10.8 8.4 1.4 61.5 61.2 5.7 7.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 11.1 11.3 7.9 2.3 71.7 68.9 4.5 6.6 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 9.5 11.0 7.2 1.8 63.6 64.3 6.5 8.5 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 6.7 7.1 8.9 1.4 60.9 62.4 4.8 5.8 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 9.7 6.7 1.4 61.6 61.3 5.5 7.4 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 6.9 8.9 9.4 1.6 62.2 63.2 4.8 5.8 9.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 4.0 6.1 4.4 1.0 62.4 59.1 1.6 2.9 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.6 9.5 9.0 1.8 64.0 64.7 5.7 7.4 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.0 9.6 9.1 1.4 61.3 62.4 4.9 5.8 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.5 10.3 9.5 1.6 62.3 62.7 5.6 6.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.0 9.6 8.3 1.5 61.6 62.0 5.8 7.8 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 9.9 9.8 7.7 1.8 68.6 65.4 5.2 6.3 8.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 8.3 10.1 6.5 1.6 65.9 64.0 6.4 7.6 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.3 8.3 1.6 65.6 64.1 5.4 7.0 8.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 11.8 11.9 7.9 2.2 69.4 67.6 5.2 6.4 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.4 6.3 5.8 1.3 62.2 60.5 2.0 4.5 7.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 6.7 8.8 9.3 1.6 63.4 63.6 4.6 5.6 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------