***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.8 11.5 5.9 94.5 92.7 4.6 5.5 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 1 99 100 9.6 11.8 10.8 5.3 93.1 89.7 2.9 5.1 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.4 13.9 11.6 5.7 93.8 91.1 4.1 6.2 7.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 3.7 5.9 9.1 5.8 96.1 93.3 -2.1 -0.1 0.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 10.5 14.3 10.9 6.5 97.5 94.2 4.3 6.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 9.9 12.9 10.6 7.5 100.0 97.7 3.5 4.5 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 9.2 11.8 10.8 5.5 94.0 91.0 2.6 4.4 6.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 0.8 3.6 9.7 6.1 95.8 93.9 -3.7 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.2 14.0 11.6 6.2 96.3 93.1 4.8 6.1 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 10.5 14.4 10.5 6.2 95.3 92.7 4.4 5.8 7.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 11.0 14.6 11.1 6.6 97.6 94.4 4.3 6.2 7.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 10.5 13.3 10.5 6.3 97.0 94.9 4.4 5.6 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 11.3 13.8 11.4 7.1 99.4 96.5 4.2 5.7 8.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 9.7 13.7 10.3 4.7 88.1 85.5 3.1 6.5 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 8.8 12.1 10.7 5.7 95.8 93.2 3.5 6.2 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.8 14.8 11.2 7.0 99.1 96.2 4.5 6.3 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 4 96 100 8.8 10.6 9.9 4.8 91.1 88.1 2.3 4.8 6.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 9.4 12.3 9.7 5.7 92.1 91.0 4.1 5.3 7.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 9.6 12.8 10.9 5.2 91.9 89.1 3.0 5.3 7.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 6.7 8.5 7.8 5.6 94.1 93.0 0.6 2.1 4.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.3 11.9 6.1 94.9 92.7 4.6 6.0 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 9.2 11.8 9.9 4.4 87.9 86.1 2.7 4.9 7.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 9.7 12.9 10.9 5.1 90.7 88.2 2.8 5.5 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 10.1 13.0 10.8 5.4 90.5 89.1 4.1 6.5 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 9.5 12.0 10.6 6.1 95.7 93.6 3.3 4.8 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.3 10.3 6.8 99.6 97.7 4.0 5.8 8.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 10.3 12.9 11.0 6.1 95.1 93.5 4.1 4.9 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 9.7 13.7 10.2 5.9 96.7 93.3 3.7 6.4 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 6.6 9.0 8.9 5.6 92.7 91.3 0.4 1.7 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.7 12.0 11.1 5.6 93.7 90.9 3.3 4.5 7.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------