***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-13.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 1.6 2.6 2.8 2.9 88.4 85.5 -1.2 0.3 1.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 0.8 1.7 2.4 2.8 87.3 85.2 -1.8 -0.6 0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 6 94 100 3.4 4.6 2.5 2.9 89.7 86.6 0.0 1.3 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 -2.3 -0.9 0.2 3.1 89.7 86.5 -6.7 -5.0 -2.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 8 92 100 -0.2 2.0 0.5 3.2 90.9 86.9 -1.8 -1.1 -0.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 -1.0 0.9 -1.5 3.3 91.1 87.5 -2.5 -2.0 -1.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 1.2 2.1 2.4 2.8 86.5 85.0 -1.4 -0.5 0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 -5.2 -4.4 -1.3 3.2 88.8 85.0 -9.0 -7.0 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 1.3 2.3 0.9 3.0 88.0 85.1 -1.4 -0.2 0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 0.7 2.2 -0.5 3.2 88.1 85.0 -1.6 -0.4 0.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 0.3 2.4 0.0 3.1 90.6 86.6 -1.3 -0.5 0.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 9 91 100 -0.7 0.8 -0.2 3.2 90.3 87.3 -2.5 -1.5 -1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 8 92 100 0.3 2.0 -0.6 3.2 91.4 87.6 -1.4 -0.9 -0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 1.6 2.1 0.5 2.7 85.7 82.8 -1.2 0.1 0.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 1.6 2.4 0.9 3.0 89.4 86.2 -1.2 -0.4 0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 8 92 100 1.3 3.1 -0.3 3.2 91.9 87.6 -0.7 0.1 0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 9 91 100 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.6 85.2 83.1 -1.5 -0.7 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 -1.8 -0.4 -1.2 3.1 86.9 83.7 -2.9 -2.3 -1.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.8 87.5 85.6 -1.8 -0.9 0.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 18 82 100 -4.0 -3.2 -3.1 3.0 86.1 82.7 -6.9 -5.0 -3.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 0.5 2.5 2.1 2.9 89.0 85.6 -1.6 -0.7 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 0.8 1.2 2.2 2.6 83.9 83.0 -2.0 -1.1 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 0.1 1.2 2.0 2.7 87.3 85.8 -1.8 -1.1 -0.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 0.5 1.6 0.5 2.9 87.5 84.1 -1.9 -0.5 -0.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 8 92 100 0.3 1.9 1.4 3.2 89.8 86.9 -1.5 -0.7 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 0.3 2.1 -0.4 3.4 94.1 89.8 -1.7 -0.7 -0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 1.0 2.1 2.1 3.1 88.4 85.9 -1.7 -0.3 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 -0.3 0.3 0.4 3.1 89.4 86.4 -3.0 -1.6 -1.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 -1.8 -0.4 -2.0 3.1 86.3 83.0 -4.7 -4.1 -2.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 8 92 100 1.4 2.6 2.6 2.9 88.1 85.9 -1.4 -0.3 0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------