***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.6 69.6 66.8 -0.8 0.2 2.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 2.2 1.7 1.9 1.6 71.0 67.7 -0.7 0.3 1.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 4.2 4.3 1.8 1.6 73.1 68.3 1.1 2.1 3.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 -1.3 -1.0 -0.6 1.9 71.6 71.1 -5.4 -4.3 -1.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 1.2 1.0 -0.6 1.8 71.2 70.0 -1.6 -0.6 0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 -0.1 -0.3 -3.0 1.3 61.2 63.3 -2.9 -1.6 0.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 2.2 2.3 2.0 1.6 70.1 67.0 -0.5 0.3 1.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 -4.1 -4.5 -2.6 1.5 64.6 65.6 -7.8 -5.3 -4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 2.5 3.1 -0.1 1.7 71.3 69.0 -0.8 0.6 1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 2.3 1.1 -1.8 1.7 68.4 67.4 -0.4 -0.1 1.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 1.9 1.4 -1.1 1.6 69.6 68.6 -1.2 -0.2 1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 0.8 0.4 -1.4 1.5 66.5 67.5 -2.0 -1.2 0.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 1.3 1.8 -1.9 1.5 67.3 66.9 -1.2 -0.7 1.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 2.8 2.9 -0.2 1.5 69.1 66.9 0.2 0.7 2.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 2.4 2.4 0.1 1.9 71.8 70.6 -1.1 0.6 2.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 29 71 100 2.7 2.0 -1.4 1.6 68.9 68.5 -0.7 0.4 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 2.3 2.8 1.9 1.6 69.5 66.6 -0.4 0.6 1.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 0.0 -0.5 -2.6 1.6 67.8 66.1 -2.6 -1.5 -0.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 2.2 2.4 1.8 1.6 71.6 68.2 -0.3 0.6 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 -2.4 -3.3 -4.7 1.3 59.2 62.9 -5.7 -4.2 -2.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.7 73.3 68.5 -0.7 0.2 1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.7 70.2 67.5 -1.0 0.4 1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 1.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 71.8 68.6 -1.1 0.0 1.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 1.8 1.9 -0.6 1.5 70.9 66.9 -0.9 -0.1 1.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 1.4 1.9 0.4 1.7 72.8 69.8 -0.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 1.6 1.0 -1.7 1.4 64.7 66.7 -1.5 -0.2 1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 2.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 70.6 67.6 -0.8 0.5 1.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 0.9 1.2 -0.4 1.8 69.9 70.0 -2.4 -1.3 0.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 -0.5 -0.5 -3.4 1.5 63.7 64.7 -3.8 -2.2 -0.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 2.8 2.5 2.0 1.6 70.7 67.7 -0.7 0.7 1.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------