***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 11.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 1.9 2.5 1.4 1.9 75.0 69.9 -2.1 0.3 1.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.9 73.1 70.1 -3.0 -1.3 0.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 3.5 3.6 1.3 2.1 74.6 71.8 -0.8 0.7 1.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 -1.8 -1.3 -1.0 2.6 75.8 74.2 -7.0 -5.9 -3.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 24 76 100 0.1 0.3 -1.1 2.3 75.1 71.6 -2.8 -1.1 0.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 -0.6 -0.4 -3.0 2.3 72.8 69.3 -3.5 -1.6 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 0.8 1.4 1.3 1.9 72.8 69.7 -2.9 -0.9 0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 26 74 100 -4.8 -4.3 -2.8 2.2 72.1 68.4 -10.3 -7.9 -4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 1.2 1.5 -0.5 2.2 74.8 70.3 -2.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 27 73 100 0.7 1.1 -2.0 2.3 74.3 69.0 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 0.7 0.9 -1.6 2.2 74.3 70.3 -2.0 -0.4 0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 -0.3 -0.3 -1.8 2.2 72.5 70.2 -3.3 -1.5 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 0.4 0.2 -2.1 2.2 73.3 70.5 -1.9 -0.4 0.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 1.2 2.3 -0.8 1.8 72.9 67.6 -1.7 -1.2 0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 1.0 1.3 -0.2 2.7 77.8 76.2 -1.8 -0.6 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 24 76 100 1.5 1.6 -1.8 2.2 73.9 71.0 -1.5 0.3 1.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.9 70.7 68.5 -2.5 -1.2 0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 -1.6 -1.2 -2.7 2.2 71.4 67.3 -4.3 -3.0 -1.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 0.8 1.5 1.2 2.0 72.8 70.6 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 -3.0 -2.7 -4.8 1.9 68.0 64.7 -9.0 -4.8 -2.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 24 76 100 0.9 1.0 0.7 2.1 74.8 70.7 -2.4 -0.1 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.9 70.2 68.8 -2.4 -1.5 0.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 72.6 70.8 -3.0 -1.6 0.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 0.4 0.7 -0.8 2.1 73.0 69.3 -2.7 -1.5 0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 0.8 1.0 -0.2 2.4 75.0 73.1 -1.9 -0.5 0.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 0.7 0.9 -1.9 2.3 73.5 71.2 -2.0 -0.8 0.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 1.3 1.8 0.6 2.1 74.5 71.0 -2.9 -0.4 1.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 -0.6 -0.3 -0.7 2.6 75.9 74.4 -4.4 -1.7 -1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 -1.6 -1.5 -3.6 1.9 66.4 65.0 -6.1 -4.6 -1.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 1.3 1.8 1.4 2.0 74.3 70.5 -2.7 -0.8 0.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------