***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 19.6 22.7 36.2 75.7 33.9 35.3 22.5 29.0 45.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 17.2 18.4 31.7 76.4 31.9 35.2 20.3 29.5 36.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 23.2 27.3 35.0 74.3 33.5 33.7 27.3 33.2 45.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 22.7 20.1 34.3 64.8 24.2 27.9 27.8 34.2 59.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 25.7 22.3 37.4 69.9 25.3 30.8 28.7 36.3 44.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 20.0 17.8 37.3 70.2 22.4 29.6 21.4 30.2 43.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 15.4 20.8 31.6 77.7 33.0 36.1 20.8 25.2 31.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 48.1 48.0 40.1 70.0 25.9 29.7 53.1 58.0 70.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 24.5 21.2 39.0 71.7 27.8 32.0 22.9 32.6 41.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 28.7 26.4 42.4 72.9 27.0 31.5 29.3 39.7 50.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 21.4 19.3 36.2 68.9 24.9 29.6 23.3 33.5 42.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 23.9 21.5 35.1 67.8 25.0 28.7 25.3 33.2 42.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 27.3 27.3 39.5 70.5 24.0 29.4 28.3 37.3 48.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 39.0 37.4 45.5 77.7 34.5 35.7 37.2 52.2 66.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 15.6 13.7 28.5 60.1 24.7 28.2 15.1 31.0 44.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 24.9 21.9 36.5 69.5 24.5 30.0 22.9 32.3 37.9 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 16.1 19.8 30.8 77.4 32.7 35.3 20.0 26.8 35.8 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 24.5 27.4 46.2 75.5 28.8 33.2 28.8 35.5 44.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 21.0 25.0 33.0 76.6 33.0 35.1 25.0 34.8 40.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 27.6 22.9 52.5 72.5 24.9 30.4 26.0 37.5 41.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 23.7 20.4 36.9 71.6 28.1 32.1 25.8 36.1 44.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 19.4 23.0 33.5 78.6 33.7 36.1 22.9 29.0 33.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 21.5 23.2 35.4 76.3 34.9 34.9 22.8 32.8 37.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 61 39 0 100 31.2 32.2 41.8 75.0 30.9 33.9 32.5 41.0 55.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 18.3 21.4 40.3 73.8 30.4 33.6 22.2 32.7 51.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 24.6 23.1 38.0 71.7 28.1 31.7 27.8 31.8 41.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 17.2 20.1 39.0 77.2 34.5 36.3 19.8 27.0 41.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 18.7 16.3 31.8 64.1 24.2 28.7 19.5 33.4 44.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 44.0 39.7 48.6 74.7 27.3 32.5 48.1 54.9 74.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 18.8 19.5 32.5 75.9 32.7 35.3 19.6 32.1 38.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------