***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.5 12.6 95.8 58.0 47.1 1.0 4.8 6.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 0.8 2.2 10.6 91.2 53.0 44.2 0.7 1.9 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.7 12.3 94.5 57.3 47.1 0.9 5.4 6.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.9 14.7 110.5 65.4 51.9 2.7 6.1 9.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 1.6 9.2 15.1 110.8 66.2 52.0 0.7 3.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 1.6 11.6 16.3 116.3 68.6 56.5 0.9 3.6 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 0.7 2.3 10.7 94.6 56.4 45.9 0.3 1.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.6 19.2 16.3 114.2 66.0 54.0 5.8 11.4 19.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 0.5 5.4 15.6 107.9 64.1 51.5 0.0 1.2 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 1.1 6.1 17.0 112.3 64.7 53.2 0.4 2.7 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 1.3 7.3 14.4 112.8 66.9 53.0 0.8 3.0 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 1.2 9.3 14.2 112.0 66.0 53.9 0.5 2.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 3.1 8.1 16.4 119.2 68.9 56.3 2.6 6.3 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 1.6 8.7 16.5 103.1 60.9 48.8 0.9 3.4 9.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.6 12.7 104.8 64.9 49.7 1.5 3.5 4.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 2.2 10.3 15.1 116.4 67.2 54.4 2.1 4.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 0.5 2.0 10.9 100.1 59.2 47.2 0.4 1.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 1.3 5.1 18.5 113.9 63.8 53.3 0.8 2.7 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.3 3.6 11.0 91.2 53.6 44.6 0.8 3.0 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 4.0 6.6 22.9 122.3 66.9 55.2 1.1 3.0 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 0.8 3.2 14.3 103.7 62.6 50.2 0.2 2.0 4.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.9 11.5 97.2 56.3 46.4 0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 1.0 3.4 12.0 92.6 56.3 45.9 0.3 2.2 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 1.0 6.4 15.8 105.1 61.5 50.0 0.9 2.3 8.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.9 5.6 15.3 104.6 60.1 49.8 0.5 4.2 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 8.0 8.3 16.8 126.6 72.0 57.4 0.6 1.9 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.0 5.2 13.9 99.9 57.6 48.2 0.5 4.2 6.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.7 6.1 13.9 111.7 66.1 52.2 1.6 3.5 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 2.6 11.6 20.1 116.9 65.3 53.8 2.5 5.6 11.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.5 10.7 89.3 52.2 44.2 0.5 2.5 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------