***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.2 12.8 110.8 61.8 50.0 2.1 6.1 8.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 10.3 11.9 11.3 116.2 64.1 50.8 5.5 8.3 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.6 12.7 12.6 113.8 61.3 49.3 4.3 7.7 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 6.4 13.8 10.8 84.8 53.5 44.4 3.4 13.3 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.9 8.5 10.9 84.7 53.4 44.4 5.2 7.7 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 5.9 10.6 83.3 51.5 44.1 4.4 5.6 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.5 13.5 11.0 112.2 62.3 50.8 3.3 8.8 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 8.1 17.1 11.4 84.0 54.2 44.4 12.9 16.5 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.0 12.0 87.9 53.0 44.9 2.9 6.3 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 4.3 10.3 12.5 88.0 54.2 45.2 7.1 9.6 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 2.8 5.6 10.3 83.5 53.2 43.6 2.3 5.3 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.0 10.1 83.3 53.3 43.5 4.6 6.3 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.9 7.1 10.9 83.2 51.0 43.5 3.9 7.1 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.4 25.4 16.3 118.1 65.5 51.5 7.7 15.5 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.1 11.3 9.7 83.8 54.2 43.8 0.7 7.1 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.6 8.6 10.3 83.6 52.2 43.8 2.1 8.4 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 11.6 10.0 102.8 60.9 49.1 5.5 7.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 5.0 10.4 14.0 94.5 55.9 47.4 6.6 9.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.9 13.9 11.9 120.0 65.4 51.1 4.4 7.1 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.8 8.8 14.7 81.1 49.7 43.9 5.1 8.8 11.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 2.8 7.8 11.7 94.0 54.6 46.1 2.5 5.1 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.2 11.0 108.3 61.7 49.6 5.4 10.1 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.6 13.1 122.5 65.9 51.3 5.1 7.1 8.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.8 11.8 14.1 107.4 61.0 49.1 8.7 10.8 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.5 10.4 12.6 95.7 55.8 47.3 1.8 7.1 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.5 8.7 10.7 86.0 52.7 44.0 2.6 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 9.0 9.4 13.1 106.5 60.0 49.4 1.8 7.0 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.4 8.0 10.1 85.4 53.6 44.3 1.9 7.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.1 15.5 14.5 91.7 54.2 46.4 9.7 13.8 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.0 12.0 12.1 119.6 64.6 51.2 4.3 7.9 13.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------