***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.0 9.9 81.8 51.2 41.4 3.8 7.8 9.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 1.6 4.5 8.6 80.5 51.5 42.7 2.3 4.4 6.8 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.5 5.8 9.2 77.3 46.6 40.0 2.8 8.1 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 2.9 2.8 7.6 56.1 37.8 31.3 2.4 5.3 9.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.3 4.4 9.9 73.8 44.1 38.3 2.5 4.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 2.6 3.8 8.8 65.5 41.3 36.4 2.1 5.6 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 2.0 4.8 8.8 83.5 52.4 43.6 2.1 4.3 8.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 6.8 9.2 10.2 70.1 41.5 37.6 7.8 12.1 21.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.2 9.9 73.1 44.6 36.9 2.1 4.7 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 3.6 5.8 10.9 77.1 46.2 39.5 3.7 6.6 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.7 3.2 9.7 70.0 41.5 36.6 2.6 7.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.1 4.8 9.0 64.3 37.4 35.2 4.3 7.2 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.4 4.0 10.3 71.9 42.6 39.0 2.8 5.4 14.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 4.2 8.2 11.2 76.6 45.7 39.3 2.2 8.9 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 0.9 0.4 5.3 43.2 34.9 28.8 0.4 3.3 5.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.3 5.5 9.5 69.8 42.4 37.0 3.4 6.4 8.9 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 1.9 5.1 8.3 81.1 53.8 43.1 3.0 4.5 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 2.3 4.3 11.5 77.4 46.0 39.2 1.6 5.1 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 1.8 5.1 8.7 79.0 49.7 41.7 2.1 5.1 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 4.3 6.5 12.7 72.2 41.0 38.1 4.8 9.1 14.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.4 9.8 76.5 46.9 38.6 1.9 4.2 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.2 5.9 9.3 84.8 55.7 44.3 1.9 5.4 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.3 9.0 75.1 45.5 39.6 2.3 3.6 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.0 5.5 10.3 74.6 45.8 38.3 3.4 6.0 13.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.7 11.1 82.7 50.7 42.3 1.6 5.3 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.7 3.8 8.7 61.6 35.1 34.6 3.2 9.5 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.2 5.8 10.9 85.4 52.5 42.7 1.3 5.2 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 1.3 2.1 6.7 51.8 36.4 30.8 1.8 4.0 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 5.7 8.9 11.9 74.2 42.6 37.9 6.2 12.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 1.8 5.3 8.7 79.2 48.6 41.8 1.9 5.3 8.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------