***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 1.0 0.7 1.0 9.2 15.1 11.0 2.0 5.7 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 0.3 0.2 1.2 13.0 19.7 14.1 0.9 2.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 0.9 0.7 1.0 9.1 15.1 11.1 2.2 4.1 14.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 3.4 3.3 1.3 9.4 14.4 11.9 6.0 10.5 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 99 1 0 100 2.1 1.8 1.4 10.7 12.6 10.6 6.2 8.0 15.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 99 1 0 100 2.1 1.9 1.6 12.5 13.5 11.1 4.2 6.3 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 0.5 0.4 1.2 13.6 18.3 14.6 1.2 2.7 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 94 6 0 100 9.9 9.2 2.1 14.2 14.3 12.3 12.7 18.6 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 98 2 0 100 1.7 1.3 1.4 11.1 14.0 11.2 3.8 7.3 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 2.8 2.0 2.0 13.3 13.0 11.1 6.5 11.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 1.6 1.3 1.8 13.0 13.4 11.6 3.9 6.9 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 92 8 0 100 2.5 2.0 1.8 14.1 16.4 13.1 5.4 8.8 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 97 3 0 100 2.4 1.9 2.0 13.2 14.1 11.6 4.4 9.8 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 2.6 2.2 1.5 10.8 13.6 10.5 4.4 9.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 94 6 0 100 0.4 0.0 0.8 6.7 17.7 13.9 1.8 6.4 12.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 1.8 1.5 1.6 12.0 14.3 11.4 4.6 7.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 0.5 0.6 1.5 17.0 23.7 16.0 1.1 3.2 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 1.8 1.4 2.2 14.0 12.9 11.2 4.0 8.9 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 0.6 0.6 1.3 12.9 19.3 13.7 1.6 2.9 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 97 3 0 100 2.7 2.3 2.3 12.9 12.9 11.2 4.6 7.6 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 1.2 1.2 1.1 8.8 14.5 10.6 1.9 6.1 14.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 88 12 0 100 0.6 1.4 1.7 17.4 25.5 16.4 1.7 4.3 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 91 9 0 100 1.0 0.7 1.3 12.3 17.5 12.3 2.3 4.2 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 99 1 0 100 1.4 1.0 1.5 11.1 13.0 10.5 3.4 7.1 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 1.3 1.2 1.2 9.0 14.3 10.6 2.0 6.9 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 92 8 0 100 1.9 1.4 1.7 13.3 16.3 13.2 2.7 8.3 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 97 3 0 100 1.0 0.9 1.1 9.7 15.5 11.1 2.0 5.8 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 0.8 0.7 1.1 9.0 15.6 13.0 1.6 5.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 7.6 5.8 2.2 13.7 12.9 11.1 10.2 16.3 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 92 8 0 100 0.3 0.1 1.0 10.6 16.9 12.9 1.5 3.1 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------