***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 10.9 11.5 10.2 2.3 78.0 76.6 5.8 9.1 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 10.7 11.8 10.2 2.3 79.0 76.5 5.7 7.2 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 11.3 12.4 10.7 2.3 80.3 77.1 6.3 7.8 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 3.6 5.0 7.9 2.5 79.9 76.9 -0.5 0.5 3.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 11.0 12.2 9.2 2.5 81.3 77.9 6.9 7.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 21 79 100 9.9 11.6 7.6 2.5 83.5 78.8 5.8 6.9 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 10.2 11.2 10.0 2.2 77.5 75.7 5.3 6.9 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 13 87 100 1.3 2.5 8.4 2.8 85.4 81.4 -2.5 -0.6 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 11.6 12.9 10.1 2.6 83.0 79.2 6.7 8.2 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 11.8 12.7 9.0 2.7 83.1 79.8 6.9 8.3 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 11.5 12.6 9.4 2.6 82.0 78.8 7.2 8.0 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 14 86 100 10.8 12.5 9.0 2.7 84.6 80.9 6.4 7.8 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 11.2 13.0 8.5 2.4 82.4 78.4 6.9 8.4 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 22 78 100 12.0 13.2 10.2 2.6 83.9 78.9 6.3 8.6 11.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 10.6 11.7 9.1 2.5 77.7 76.1 5.2 6.9 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 19 81 100 11.8 13.4 8.8 2.5 81.9 78.3 7.3 8.8 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 10.3 11.3 9.9 2.2 77.6 76.3 5.3 6.6 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 11.2 12.7 8.9 2.9 85.9 81.6 6.4 7.4 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 10.8 12.1 10.5 2.3 80.7 77.1 5.7 7.1 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 6.7 8.9 6.9 3.0 90.4 84.2 2.2 3.5 5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 11.2 12.4 10.5 2.4 81.5 77.5 6.7 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 23 77 100 11.1 12.4 10.2 2.3 79.4 77.1 6.0 7.2 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 22 78 100 11.3 12.8 10.8 2.4 83.0 77.9 6.1 7.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 11.9 13.0 10.2 2.6 83.4 79.2 6.7 8.2 10.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 10.0 11.4 9.0 2.4 80.9 77.4 6.0 7.1 9.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 10.3 12.9 7.9 2.6 84.9 80.4 6.6 8.1 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 10.6 11.6 9.6 2.2 79.0 76.7 6.1 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 11.3 12.7 8.5 2.5 78.3 76.2 5.6 7.3 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 6.9 8.8 8.3 2.9 87.8 82.8 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 22 78 100 10.3 11.2 10.2 2.3 79.4 76.6 5.6 7.1 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------