***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.03.2017.-12.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.5 10.5 0.8 57.5 54.4 8.5 10.4 11.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.6 10.3 0.7 56.4 53.7 7.4 10.7 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.4 11.9 10.9 0.7 56.6 54.1 8.1 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 4.0 4.3 8.5 1.1 61.3 57.4 -0.4 3.4 5.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.0 12.1 9.3 1.0 60.7 56.6 7.7 11.3 12.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.7 7.6 1.1 63.5 58.0 7.6 10.0 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 11.6 11.2 10.3 0.7 56.4 53.7 7.6 10.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.3 2.2 8.0 0.9 61.3 56.8 -1.2 0.5 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.9 9.8 0.9 59.5 55.7 8.5 11.2 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.2 12.1 8.7 0.9 60.6 56.1 8.1 11.6 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.0 9.2 1.0 61.6 56.9 8.0 11.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.4 11.6 8.8 1.0 61.5 57.2 8.8 10.7 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.4 8.1 1.0 61.7 58.0 10.4 11.5 12.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.0 9.6 0.6 51.3 53.2 7.3 12.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 11.5 12.2 9.1 1.1 60.4 58.1 5.5 10.9 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.5 8.8 1.1 62.7 57.7 9.1 11.9 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 7.3 11.1 10.1 0.5 55.3 52.8 6.4 10.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.7 8.4 0.8 57.9 55.1 7.4 11.0 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.4 10.6 0.7 55.8 53.8 6.6 11.2 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.8 5.9 0.9 59.3 56.3 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.0 10.4 0.8 57.9 54.9 8.7 11.3 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 8.0 11.8 10.2 0.5 54.4 52.9 6.3 11.2 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.1 10.8 0.7 54.1 53.7 7.5 11.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.5 11.8 9.7 0.7 54.1 54.0 9.4 11.6 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 11.3 12.0 9.0 0.9 59.9 55.8 7.1 10.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.9 8.0 1.1 63.3 59.3 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.6 9.8 0.8 58.4 54.8 8.7 10.8 12.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.5 8.7 1.1 61.8 57.7 6.2 11.5 12.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.4 7.5 0.8 57.8 55.4 3.6 6.0 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.2 10.4 0.7 56.6 54.0 7.4 10.7 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------